IMF urges eastern EU to adopt euro

By Stefan Wagstyl, Eastern Europe Editor

Crisis-hit European Union states in central and eastern Europe should consider scrapping their currencies in favour of the euro even without formally joining the eurozone, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The eurozone could relax its entry rules so countries could join as quasi-members, without European Central Bank board seats, says the fund.

“For countries in the EU, euro­isation offers the largest benefits in terms of resolving the foreign currency debt overhang [accumulation], removing uncertainty and restoring confidence.

“Without euroisation, addressing the foreign debt currency overhang would require massive domestic retrenchment in some countries, against growing political resistance.”

Disclosure of the confidential report, prepared about a month ago, could reignite a fierce debate over strategies to assist central and east Europe.

Even though global leaders hailed last week’s G20 summit as a success, eastern Europe’s challenges remain. Amid deepening recession, Ukraine and Latvia, two states already in IMF programmes, have in recent days balked at approving IMF-mandated reforms. A third, Hungary, is struggling to create a government capable of implementing reforms.

The IMF report was compiled to support a campaign by the fund, the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to persuade the EU and eastern European states to back a region-wide anti-crisis strategy, including a regional rescue fund. The campaign failed amid widespread opposition from both west and east European states.

Eurozone members also oppose easing the eurozone’s entry rules, as does the ECB.

The IMF, which forecasts a 2.5 per cent decline in regional gross domestic product in 2009, estimates that “emerging Europe” – including Turkey – must roll over $413bn in maturing external debt in 2009 and cover $84bn in projected current account deficits.

The report estimates that “the financing gap” – money needed from international financial institutions, the EU and governments – will be $123bn this year and $63bn next, or $186bn in total.

Much could come from the IMF. But the report says “up to $105bn” could be needed from other sources, including the EU.