Armenia’s grief

The agreement between Turkey and Armenia on a “road map” to normalise their relations is very good news. Their historic animosity since the slaughter and mass deportation of Armenians from the collapsing Ottoman empire in 1915 has destabilised the region, poisoned internal politics, isolated and impoverished Armenia, and cast a shadow over Turkey’s relations with Europe and America. Now there is a chance of beginning to heal the wounds.

Yet first a word of caution. Last week’s declaration gave no clues to the precise terms of the agreement, nor a timetable. It seems to have been rushed out to enable Barack Obama, US president, to issue a statement commemorating the 1915 massacres without using the word “genocide” to describe them. That marked a sensible retreat from his election campaign position in order not to alienate Turkey.

The prize of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation is worth it, but the process remains fragile and bedevilled by mistrust. Both sides are still only inching forward, and both face strong resistance at home to making any concessions at all.

The deal would provide for diplomatic recognition, and reopening of the border between them, which was closed by Turkey in 1993 after ethnic Armenian forces seized control of Nagorno-Karabakh in neighbouring Azerbaijan. Both moves would be done gradually to build confidence. That is sensible.

On two vital points, however, there is still no clarity. A historical commission is to be set up to investigate the events of 1915. How will it be constituted and how will it work? If it decides that the massacres did amount to genocide, or did not, it will still be politically explosive unless there is agreement to abide by its results. Second, what progress needs to be made on resolving the Karabakh dispute for Turkey to reopen the border fully?

There seems to be a serious intent in both Ankara and Yerevan to find a way forward in spite of opposition, including from the influential Armenian diaspora in the US and European Union. But pressure on them both from Washington, Brussels and – most significantly – from Moscow for more progress and a clear timetable is still essential.

The one country that might try to scupper progress is Azerbaijan, fearful that reopening the border would take away pressure for Armenia to do a deal over Karabakh, or at least to withdraw from the buffer zone where 500,000 Azeri refugees used to live. But the 19-year border closure has done nothing to hasten an agreement on that score. All sides have an interest in reconciliation, not confrontation.