By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Turkey’s economy should return to growth by the end of the year, Durmus Yilmaz, the country’s central bank governor, said on Thursday after data showed the severity of the recession easing in the third quarter of the year.
Gross domestic product fell 3.3 per cent year on year in the three months to September, slightly better than expected, but with downward revisions for earlier quarters taking the contraction over the first 9 months of the year to 8.4 per cent.
The central bank has acted aggressively to counter the downturn, cutting interest rates by more than 10 percentage points in the past year as inflation fell to a historical low close to 5 per cent. But economists think the bank has little scope for further easing and may need to raise rates as the global recovery gains pace.
Mr Yilmaz said inflation could be volatile early in 2010 but would undershoot a 6.5 per cent target for the year. He set a new target of 5.5 per cent inflation for 2012.
The government is forecasting growth of about 3.5 per cent in 2010, a sluggish recovery by Turkish standards. Recent data have been mixed, showing a surprisingly strong industrial rebound in October, but little enthusiasm for new investment, and shaky confidence among both businesses and consumers.
“The tide is turning, but slowly,” said Guldem Atabay, economist at ExpresInvest. Timothy Ash, at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said: “Turkey is a fairly dynamic economy, so I would still assume it should lead the regional recovery.”
The faltering economy contrasts with a financial stability that is unusual, by Turkish historical standards. Mr Ash noted earlier this week that prices suggested Turkish five-year credit default swaps were now considered less risky than those of Greece – and several other eastern European and Baltic countries.
The treasury on Thursday announced borrowing plans for 2010, welcomed by analysts, saying it would roll over 99.5 per cent of domestic debt in 2010 and might launch longer-term 10 year lira bonds. It left the door open for a programme with the International Monetary Fund, after more than a year of talks, saying plans would be revised if there were any additional funds from international institutions.
Mr Yilmaz said the central bank would buy government bonds worth 8bn TL ($5.3bn, €3.6bn, £3.3bn) in 2010, essentially replacing its current portfolio. Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JPMorgan, welcomed the confirmation that it “had no intention of helping the Treasury in rolling over its debt”, saying it would improve the bank’s credibility.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009.
Showing posts with label Turkish economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkish economy. Show all posts
Friday, December 11, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Turkish unemployment reaches historic high
By David O’Byrne in Istanbul
Unemployment rates in Turkey reached a historic high of 15.5 per cent in January according to figures released on Wednesday by Turkey’s institute of statistics.
The rise of 3.9 per cent on the January 2008 figure of 11.6 per cent took unemployment to its highest level recorded since the current method of measuring unemployment was adopted in 2005.
According to the figures a total of 3.65m Turks are now unemployed - an increase of 1.06m on the 2.59m recorded in the same month last year.
Rates for urban unemployment were reported as reaching 17.2 per cent, up 4.2 per cent on the figure of 13 per cent recorded in January 2008 while rural employment was reported as being 11.8 per cent, an increase of 3.4 per cent on the figure of 8.4 per cent recorded in January 2008.
Figures for unemployment among non-agricultural workers showed an even steeper increase at 19 per cent up 5.3 per cent on the 13.7 per cent recorded in January 2008.
However the figures have been challenged by Turkey’s biggest trade union confederation Turk-Is which claims that the true figure is close to 27 per cent.
Turk Is claims that a more accurate assessment of unemployment should also include those who are not actively seeking work but would work if jobs were available, which would include many single women who stay at home and those entering further education as an alternative to unemployment.
The historically high levels come on the back of an eight month period which has seen many major Turkish manufacturers laying off workers.
According to the Istanbul Ready-Wear and Apparel Exporters’ Association as many as 160,000 people have been laid off by textile manufacturers in Turkey since August last year.
Many other manufacturers have opted to halt production for short periods in order to decrease high inventory levels caused by a drastic drop in exports to key European markets caused by the ongoing recession.
Particularly badly hit have been the automotive, white goods and textile sectors.
Turkey’s finance ministry last month announced a drop in purchase taxes on automobiles and white goods in an effort to help manufacturers decrease stocks.
Speaking to the FT Wednesday Ercan Tezer the head of Turkey’s Automotive Industry Federation commented that companies in his sector had been forced to cut production by as much as 60 per cent but because of expectations that demand would rebound had cut their workforces by only around 15 per cent
”Manufacturers are in a difficult position because they need to maintain a highly trained workforce for when demand starts growing again, which we’re expecting next year,” he said.
On Sunday last Turkish Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek and Finance Minister Kemal Unakitan announced Turkey’s EU pre-accession economic programme which envisages industrial production drop by 9.7 per cent during 2009 with the economy shrinking by 3.6-per cent overall.
Unemployment rates in Turkey reached a historic high of 15.5 per cent in January according to figures released on Wednesday by Turkey’s institute of statistics.
The rise of 3.9 per cent on the January 2008 figure of 11.6 per cent took unemployment to its highest level recorded since the current method of measuring unemployment was adopted in 2005.
According to the figures a total of 3.65m Turks are now unemployed - an increase of 1.06m on the 2.59m recorded in the same month last year.
Rates for urban unemployment were reported as reaching 17.2 per cent, up 4.2 per cent on the figure of 13 per cent recorded in January 2008 while rural employment was reported as being 11.8 per cent, an increase of 3.4 per cent on the figure of 8.4 per cent recorded in January 2008.
Figures for unemployment among non-agricultural workers showed an even steeper increase at 19 per cent up 5.3 per cent on the 13.7 per cent recorded in January 2008.
However the figures have been challenged by Turkey’s biggest trade union confederation Turk-Is which claims that the true figure is close to 27 per cent.
Turk Is claims that a more accurate assessment of unemployment should also include those who are not actively seeking work but would work if jobs were available, which would include many single women who stay at home and those entering further education as an alternative to unemployment.
The historically high levels come on the back of an eight month period which has seen many major Turkish manufacturers laying off workers.
According to the Istanbul Ready-Wear and Apparel Exporters’ Association as many as 160,000 people have been laid off by textile manufacturers in Turkey since August last year.
Many other manufacturers have opted to halt production for short periods in order to decrease high inventory levels caused by a drastic drop in exports to key European markets caused by the ongoing recession.
Particularly badly hit have been the automotive, white goods and textile sectors.
Turkey’s finance ministry last month announced a drop in purchase taxes on automobiles and white goods in an effort to help manufacturers decrease stocks.
Speaking to the FT Wednesday Ercan Tezer the head of Turkey’s Automotive Industry Federation commented that companies in his sector had been forced to cut production by as much as 60 per cent but because of expectations that demand would rebound had cut their workforces by only around 15 per cent
”Manufacturers are in a difficult position because they need to maintain a highly trained workforce for when demand starts growing again, which we’re expecting next year,” he said.
On Sunday last Turkish Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek and Finance Minister Kemal Unakitan announced Turkey’s EU pre-accession economic programme which envisages industrial production drop by 9.7 per cent during 2009 with the economy shrinking by 3.6-per cent overall.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Turkey's growth spurt comes to an end
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Turkey’s seven-year growth spurt came to an abrupt end in the last quarter of 2008, official data showed on Tuesday, prompting analysts to redouble calls for the G20 economy to reach a swift deal with the International Monetary Fund.
Gross domestic product shrank 6.2 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter, more than expected, and grew just 1.1 per cent in the year as a whole, in stark contrast to average annual growth of 7 per cent since 2002.
Pollsters say the downturn, especially acute in manufacturing, was the main reason for the ruling Justice & Development party’s weaker showing in Sunday’s municipal elections – a setback that could spur the government into action.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, will meet IMF management in London this week, and has signalled talks over a financing package could resume soon.
Recent changes in the way the IMF lends to emerging markets may ease the negotiations, which broke down in February partly over a disagreement on how Turkey should improve tax collection.
Economists say Turkey is unlikely to qualify for the new, more flexible, lending facilities but even with a standard programme, it will be able to access more funding upfront, and further funds will not be conditional on structural reforms.
Separate data also showed that lower energy prices and weak domestic demand almost eliminated Turkey’s trade deficit in February. “External financing requirements will be less of a concern to international investors,” said Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JPMorgan.
However, if it is to tap IMF funds, Turkey will have to commit itself to restoring fiscal discipline, after a pre-election spending spree that meant February’s budget deficit already equalled the target for the full year. The cost of stimulus measures, including temporary tax cuts on sales of cars, household goods and property, is still unclear.
The central bank, which has cut its main borrowing rate by 625 basis points since November, published minutes yesterday saying it might be necessary to maintain its easing bias “for a considerable period”.
But it also said the government’s increased financing needs could make rate cuts less effective, and said stimulus measures would only work within a credible medium-term fiscal framework. Current budget plans are based on an official forecast of 4 per cent GDP growth in 2009, while most analysts expect a sharp decline.
Timothy Ash, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the growth data should convince officials “urgent action is required, particularly to shore up public finances”, adding that an IMF deal securing budget financing needs for 2009 would increase the scope for rate cuts.
Turkey’s seven-year growth spurt came to an abrupt end in the last quarter of 2008, official data showed on Tuesday, prompting analysts to redouble calls for the G20 economy to reach a swift deal with the International Monetary Fund.
Gross domestic product shrank 6.2 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter, more than expected, and grew just 1.1 per cent in the year as a whole, in stark contrast to average annual growth of 7 per cent since 2002.
Pollsters say the downturn, especially acute in manufacturing, was the main reason for the ruling Justice & Development party’s weaker showing in Sunday’s municipal elections – a setback that could spur the government into action.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, will meet IMF management in London this week, and has signalled talks over a financing package could resume soon.
Recent changes in the way the IMF lends to emerging markets may ease the negotiations, which broke down in February partly over a disagreement on how Turkey should improve tax collection.
Economists say Turkey is unlikely to qualify for the new, more flexible, lending facilities but even with a standard programme, it will be able to access more funding upfront, and further funds will not be conditional on structural reforms.
Separate data also showed that lower energy prices and weak domestic demand almost eliminated Turkey’s trade deficit in February. “External financing requirements will be less of a concern to international investors,” said Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JPMorgan.
However, if it is to tap IMF funds, Turkey will have to commit itself to restoring fiscal discipline, after a pre-election spending spree that meant February’s budget deficit already equalled the target for the full year. The cost of stimulus measures, including temporary tax cuts on sales of cars, household goods and property, is still unclear.
The central bank, which has cut its main borrowing rate by 625 basis points since November, published minutes yesterday saying it might be necessary to maintain its easing bias “for a considerable period”.
But it also said the government’s increased financing needs could make rate cuts less effective, and said stimulus measures would only work within a credible medium-term fiscal framework. Current budget plans are based on an official forecast of 4 per cent GDP growth in 2009, while most analysts expect a sharp decline.
Timothy Ash, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the growth data should convince officials “urgent action is required, particularly to shore up public finances”, adding that an IMF deal securing budget financing needs for 2009 would increase the scope for rate cuts.
Monday, March 23, 2009
TÜSİAD Başkanı: Tehditle istihdam olmaz
İSTANBUL - Türk Sanayici ve İşadamları Derneği (TÜSİAD) Başkanı Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, hükümetin kamuoyuna ‘Dört’üncü paket’ olarak lanse ettiği önlemler için, “İyi oldu, devamını bekliyoruz. Ancak hükümet bu önlemleri daha önce, yani zamanında alsaydı, işsizlik bu kadar tavana vurmazdı. Krizi daha rahat atlatabilirdik” diye konuştu.
Geçen hafta Londra’da Confederation of British Industry’nin (CBI) ev sahipliğinde gerçekleşen G-20 İş Zirvesi’nde, Türk özel sektörünü temsil eden Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, hem toplantıya dönük izlenimlerini anlattı, hem de gündemdeki soruları yanıtladı.
Algıda da gecikildi
Hükümetin açıkladığı son paketi değerlendiren Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, “Hükümet krizi geç algıladı ve önlemlerde geç kaldı” diyerek şunları dile getirdi:
“Son paket doğru ama bu eylülden beri konuşuluyordu. Biz bunu ekimde de yapabilirdik. Otomomotivde, beyaz ve elektronik eşyada (özel tüketim vergisi)?ÖTV indirimi ekimde de yapılabilirdi. KKDF’de (Kaynak Kullanımı Destekleme Fonu) indirim aylardır konuşuluyor. Çok daha önce yapılabilirdi. Benim gördüğüm, hükümet krizi hafife aldı.”
‘Bağışıklığa güvendik’
Krizin hafife alınmasını “Çünkü biz 2001’de bir kriz yaşamıştık. Bağışıklık sistemimiz olduğu için daha atlatacağımızı düşündük” diye açıklayan TÜSİAD?Başkanı Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, sözlerine şöyle devam etti:
“Bu düşünce bizi bugünlere getirdi. Önlemleri daha önce yapabilseydik, bu krizi daha kolay atlatabilir, bu kadar istihdam kaybına neden olmayabilirdik. Başından beri soğuyan çarklarını ekonominin yeniden döndürmek gerekiyor. İç tüketim daralınca üretim olmuyor, üretim olmayınca işten çıkarma oluyor ve iç tüketim daha da daralıyor. Beklenti yönetimi de çok önemli.”
‘Seçim sonrası zor’
29 Mart’tan sonrasına ilişkin beklentilerinin sorulması üzerine, “İç tüketimi yeniden canlandırmak kolay olmayacak” diyen Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, önerilerini şöyle dile getirdi: “İhracat için krizden daha az etkilenen pazarlara gidilebilir. Ayrıca tüketimi artıracak, ekonomiyi canlandıracak adımların devamı gelmeli. Çünkü, hükümetin aldığı son önlemlerin olumlu etkisi olduğu görülüyor ama bunun devamı da önemli.”
‘Enflasyon endişemiz yok’
Hükümetin çıkardığı Ar-Ge Teşvik Yasası’nı 1.5 yıldan bu yana istediklerini hatırlatan Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, şöyle konuştu: “Hükümet bu konuda adım attığında zaten ekonomi daralmaya başlamıştı. Eğer zamanında çıkarılsaydı, dünyada para bolluğu da varken Türkiye daha çok yatırım çekerdi. Kötümser görünmek istemiyorum ama bazı önlemlerin de zamanında alınması gerektiğini de söylemek gerek.”
Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, “TÜSİAD’ın eski başkanlarından Bülent Eczacıbaşı, ‘tabuları tartışalım, parasal genişlemeyi konuşalım’ çağrısı yaptı. Siz buna katılıyor musunuz?” sorusunu şöyle yanıtladı:
“Gelinen noktada artık enflasyon endişesi taşımıyoruz. Öyleyse öncelik ekonominin canlandırılması olmalı. TÜSİAD olarak kontrollü bir mali genişlemeden yanayız. Önemli olan, mali genişlemenin gerçekten ekonomiye katma değer katacak, istihdam kaybını önleyecek şekilde kullanılması.
Yoksa vergiler azalıyor, bir şekilde harcamalar oluyor, maliye politikası bozuluyor, genişliyor ama ekonomiye bir değer sağlamıyorsa bu vahim bir durum.
Biz o nedenle ‘kontrollü’ diyoruz. Gerçi para politikası Merkez Bankası’nın konusu ve o gerekeni yapıyor. Örneğin faizleri indiriyor. Kısacası biz Türkiye’nin geleceğini ipotek altına almayan mali genişlemeden yanayız.”
‘Garanti fonuna sıcak’
Açıklanan destek paketlerine ek olarak bankalarla reel sektör arasındaki kredi akışını kolaylaştırmak için gündeme gelen, kredi garanti fonu konusunda, TÜSİAD’ın yaklaşımının ne olduğu sorusu üzerine Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, “Sıcak bakıyoruz” dedi.
Ancak Yalçındağ şu uyarıları yapmaktan da geri durmadı:
“Böyle bir fon önemli ama nasıl yönetileceği daha da önemli. Özel sektör için de, bankaların risk yönetimleri açısından da önemli. Kurtarılamayacak şirketlere yatırım yapmak, zaten batacak oyan şirkete fon sağlamak emeğin ve paranın heba edilmesi demektir.”
‘Tehditle istihdam olmaz’
Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın, iş dünyasına yönelik, ‘İşçi çıkarmayın, hesap sorarız’ uyarısını Türkiye İşveren Sendikaları Konfederasyonu (TİSK) Başkanı Tuğrul Kudatgobilik gibi ‘tehdit’ olarak değerlendiren Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, bu yöntemin istihdama katkısı olmayacağını ifade etti. Yalçındağ, şu yorumu yaptı: “İşadamlarının işçi çıkarmak konusunda nasıl davranacakları, tehditle olacak şey değil. Hiçbir işadamı yetişmiş elemanını kaybetmek istemez. Vicdani olarak da bir insanın istediği, öncelikle işçi çıkarma yönünde olmaz.
Ama imkânları daralıyorsa ne yapabilir? Üretim yoksa ne yapsın? İşveren ancak kaçınılmaz noktaya gelince işçi çıkarmayı gündemine alır.” (Radikal)
‘Dünyada korumacılık endişeleri arttı’
Kriz yüzünden dünyada giderek yayılan korumacılık konusundaki bir soru üzerine Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, endişelerini ortaya koyarak, şu değerlendirmeyi yaptı:
“Bu konu Londra’daki G-20 iş dünyası toplantısında da gündeme geldi. Örneğin Sarkozy’nin aksine Fransız işadamları korumacılık konusundaki endişelerini dile getirdi. İngiltere Başbakanı Gordon Brown, korumacılığa karşı çıkan bir konuşma yaptı.
Avrupa ülkelerinin temsilcilerinde ciddi bir endişe var bu konuda. Korumacılık özel sektör için bir tehlike. Kurtarmacı yaklaşımda devletler bankalara sahip oluyor. İşadamları arasında hükümetlerin böyle eğilimleri olacağı ve bütün bunların da ekonomiyi ve dünya ticaretini ve kendi ekonomilerini vuracağı konusunda endişeleri var. Kendi menfaatlerimizi en üstte tutacaksak, dünyada korumacılığın olmaması için uğraşmamız lazım. Şanslıyız ki G-20’deki iş dünyası da bunu istemiyor. Politikacılar istiyor olabilir. Zengin ülkelerde bunu isteyip kısa vadede kar sağlayabilirler ama uzun vadede menfaatlerine olmaz. Politikacılar istese de, iş dünyası kanının son damlasına kadar buna direnmek zorunda.”
Londra’da gündeme gelen konulardan birinin de kurtarılan bankalar olduğunu belirten Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, faturanın reel sektör üzerinden mi alınacağı, vatandaşa mı çıkarılacağı, yoksa hissedarlara mı kesileceği yönündeki sorulara yanıt arandığını aktardı. Bu noktada, Türkiye’nin 2001’de yaşadığı kriz döneminden örnek verdiğini belirten Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, şunları söyledi:
“Türkiye, kriz sonrası el konulan bankaları çok çabuk elden çıkardı. O dönemde dünyada şimdiki gibi bir daralma söz konusu değildi. Bizim bankacılık sistemimizde tüm o piyasada çok küçük bir parçaydı dolayısıyla bankalarımız yabancı ortak bulup ayağa kaldırıldı. Şimdi devletleşen bankalar o kadar büyük boyuttaki bunu hangi güç gelip alabilecek, yeniden özelleşmesini sağlayacak?”
TÜSİAD’ın G-20’ye önerileri
Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, 2 Nisan’da yapılacak G-20 Zirvesi öncesinde 18 Mart’ta Londra’da yapılan toplantıda, TÜSİAD Başkanı olarak dile getirdiği önerileri şöyle özetledi:
* G-20 önemli bir oluşum, bunun kurumsallaşması, krizden sonra devam etmesi dünya ekonomisi için faydalı olacak. Çünkü gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dünya ekonomisine faydaları artacak.
* IMF gibi küresel kurumların sorumluluk çerçeveleri değişebilir. IMF kaynaklarının artırılması doğru bir karar. Bu kaynak krizden çıkmak için gerekli yerlere aktarılmalı.
* Bu dönemde, genişleyici maliye politikalarının sonuna kadar kullanılması önemli. Bu ekonominin canlandırılması, tüketimin artırılması açısından önemli.
TÜSİAD Başkanı Yalçındağ, ikinci bölümü İngiltere Başbakanı Gordon Brown’la yapılan toplantılarda, cevap aranan soruları ise şöyle sıraladı:
* Devletleştirme devam mı edecek?
* Korumacılık kabul görür mü?
* Ekonomi yeniden nasıl canlandırılacak?
* IMF’nin rolü mü genişletilmeli, Dünya Bankası’nın mı?
* Öncelik regülasyon mu, yoksa mali politikalar mı olsun?
‘Verginin denetimi siyasallaşmasın’
Doğan Yayın Holding’e (DYH) yönelik vergi cezasına ilişkin sorular üzerine Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, şunları söyledi:
* İş adamları ekonomi kötü demeye korkuyor. Yani bırakın tenkidi, tespit yapmaya korkuyorlar. Çünkü verginin denetimi Türkiye de siyasallaşmış durumda. Her gittiğim yerde bunu görebiliyorum. Demokrasi, verdiğimiz oyun verdiğimiz güç tarafından hakkaniyetli kullanılmasıdır. Aslında bu emaneti güç gösterisi yapmadan kullanmak doğru olan. Onun için elinde gücü tutanlar hassas ve hakkaniyetli davranmalıdırlar.
* Vergi denetiminin özerkleştirilmesi zaten yapılması gereken çok elzem bir konu. Bugünün sorunu değildir. 2003 yılında TÜSİAD’ın yaptığı bir raporda da zaten anlatmışız. Sadece denetim değil aslında bir reformdur bu.
Geçen hafta Londra’da Confederation of British Industry’nin (CBI) ev sahipliğinde gerçekleşen G-20 İş Zirvesi’nde, Türk özel sektörünü temsil eden Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, hem toplantıya dönük izlenimlerini anlattı, hem de gündemdeki soruları yanıtladı.
Algıda da gecikildi
Hükümetin açıkladığı son paketi değerlendiren Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, “Hükümet krizi geç algıladı ve önlemlerde geç kaldı” diyerek şunları dile getirdi:
“Son paket doğru ama bu eylülden beri konuşuluyordu. Biz bunu ekimde de yapabilirdik. Otomomotivde, beyaz ve elektronik eşyada (özel tüketim vergisi)?ÖTV indirimi ekimde de yapılabilirdi. KKDF’de (Kaynak Kullanımı Destekleme Fonu) indirim aylardır konuşuluyor. Çok daha önce yapılabilirdi. Benim gördüğüm, hükümet krizi hafife aldı.”
‘Bağışıklığa güvendik’
Krizin hafife alınmasını “Çünkü biz 2001’de bir kriz yaşamıştık. Bağışıklık sistemimiz olduğu için daha atlatacağımızı düşündük” diye açıklayan TÜSİAD?Başkanı Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, sözlerine şöyle devam etti:
“Bu düşünce bizi bugünlere getirdi. Önlemleri daha önce yapabilseydik, bu krizi daha kolay atlatabilir, bu kadar istihdam kaybına neden olmayabilirdik. Başından beri soğuyan çarklarını ekonominin yeniden döndürmek gerekiyor. İç tüketim daralınca üretim olmuyor, üretim olmayınca işten çıkarma oluyor ve iç tüketim daha da daralıyor. Beklenti yönetimi de çok önemli.”
‘Seçim sonrası zor’
29 Mart’tan sonrasına ilişkin beklentilerinin sorulması üzerine, “İç tüketimi yeniden canlandırmak kolay olmayacak” diyen Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, önerilerini şöyle dile getirdi: “İhracat için krizden daha az etkilenen pazarlara gidilebilir. Ayrıca tüketimi artıracak, ekonomiyi canlandıracak adımların devamı gelmeli. Çünkü, hükümetin aldığı son önlemlerin olumlu etkisi olduğu görülüyor ama bunun devamı da önemli.”
‘Enflasyon endişemiz yok’
Hükümetin çıkardığı Ar-Ge Teşvik Yasası’nı 1.5 yıldan bu yana istediklerini hatırlatan Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, şöyle konuştu: “Hükümet bu konuda adım attığında zaten ekonomi daralmaya başlamıştı. Eğer zamanında çıkarılsaydı, dünyada para bolluğu da varken Türkiye daha çok yatırım çekerdi. Kötümser görünmek istemiyorum ama bazı önlemlerin de zamanında alınması gerektiğini de söylemek gerek.”
Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, “TÜSİAD’ın eski başkanlarından Bülent Eczacıbaşı, ‘tabuları tartışalım, parasal genişlemeyi konuşalım’ çağrısı yaptı. Siz buna katılıyor musunuz?” sorusunu şöyle yanıtladı:
“Gelinen noktada artık enflasyon endişesi taşımıyoruz. Öyleyse öncelik ekonominin canlandırılması olmalı. TÜSİAD olarak kontrollü bir mali genişlemeden yanayız. Önemli olan, mali genişlemenin gerçekten ekonomiye katma değer katacak, istihdam kaybını önleyecek şekilde kullanılması.
Yoksa vergiler azalıyor, bir şekilde harcamalar oluyor, maliye politikası bozuluyor, genişliyor ama ekonomiye bir değer sağlamıyorsa bu vahim bir durum.
Biz o nedenle ‘kontrollü’ diyoruz. Gerçi para politikası Merkez Bankası’nın konusu ve o gerekeni yapıyor. Örneğin faizleri indiriyor. Kısacası biz Türkiye’nin geleceğini ipotek altına almayan mali genişlemeden yanayız.”
‘Garanti fonuna sıcak’
Açıklanan destek paketlerine ek olarak bankalarla reel sektör arasındaki kredi akışını kolaylaştırmak için gündeme gelen, kredi garanti fonu konusunda, TÜSİAD’ın yaklaşımının ne olduğu sorusu üzerine Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, “Sıcak bakıyoruz” dedi.
Ancak Yalçındağ şu uyarıları yapmaktan da geri durmadı:
“Böyle bir fon önemli ama nasıl yönetileceği daha da önemli. Özel sektör için de, bankaların risk yönetimleri açısından da önemli. Kurtarılamayacak şirketlere yatırım yapmak, zaten batacak oyan şirkete fon sağlamak emeğin ve paranın heba edilmesi demektir.”
‘Tehditle istihdam olmaz’
Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın, iş dünyasına yönelik, ‘İşçi çıkarmayın, hesap sorarız’ uyarısını Türkiye İşveren Sendikaları Konfederasyonu (TİSK) Başkanı Tuğrul Kudatgobilik gibi ‘tehdit’ olarak değerlendiren Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, bu yöntemin istihdama katkısı olmayacağını ifade etti. Yalçındağ, şu yorumu yaptı: “İşadamlarının işçi çıkarmak konusunda nasıl davranacakları, tehditle olacak şey değil. Hiçbir işadamı yetişmiş elemanını kaybetmek istemez. Vicdani olarak da bir insanın istediği, öncelikle işçi çıkarma yönünde olmaz.
Ama imkânları daralıyorsa ne yapabilir? Üretim yoksa ne yapsın? İşveren ancak kaçınılmaz noktaya gelince işçi çıkarmayı gündemine alır.” (Radikal)
‘Dünyada korumacılık endişeleri arttı’
Kriz yüzünden dünyada giderek yayılan korumacılık konusundaki bir soru üzerine Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, endişelerini ortaya koyarak, şu değerlendirmeyi yaptı:
“Bu konu Londra’daki G-20 iş dünyası toplantısında da gündeme geldi. Örneğin Sarkozy’nin aksine Fransız işadamları korumacılık konusundaki endişelerini dile getirdi. İngiltere Başbakanı Gordon Brown, korumacılığa karşı çıkan bir konuşma yaptı.
Avrupa ülkelerinin temsilcilerinde ciddi bir endişe var bu konuda. Korumacılık özel sektör için bir tehlike. Kurtarmacı yaklaşımda devletler bankalara sahip oluyor. İşadamları arasında hükümetlerin böyle eğilimleri olacağı ve bütün bunların da ekonomiyi ve dünya ticaretini ve kendi ekonomilerini vuracağı konusunda endişeleri var. Kendi menfaatlerimizi en üstte tutacaksak, dünyada korumacılığın olmaması için uğraşmamız lazım. Şanslıyız ki G-20’deki iş dünyası da bunu istemiyor. Politikacılar istiyor olabilir. Zengin ülkelerde bunu isteyip kısa vadede kar sağlayabilirler ama uzun vadede menfaatlerine olmaz. Politikacılar istese de, iş dünyası kanının son damlasına kadar buna direnmek zorunda.”
Londra’da gündeme gelen konulardan birinin de kurtarılan bankalar olduğunu belirten Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, faturanın reel sektör üzerinden mi alınacağı, vatandaşa mı çıkarılacağı, yoksa hissedarlara mı kesileceği yönündeki sorulara yanıt arandığını aktardı. Bu noktada, Türkiye’nin 2001’de yaşadığı kriz döneminden örnek verdiğini belirten Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, şunları söyledi:
“Türkiye, kriz sonrası el konulan bankaları çok çabuk elden çıkardı. O dönemde dünyada şimdiki gibi bir daralma söz konusu değildi. Bizim bankacılık sistemimizde tüm o piyasada çok küçük bir parçaydı dolayısıyla bankalarımız yabancı ortak bulup ayağa kaldırıldı. Şimdi devletleşen bankalar o kadar büyük boyuttaki bunu hangi güç gelip alabilecek, yeniden özelleşmesini sağlayacak?”
TÜSİAD’ın G-20’ye önerileri
Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, 2 Nisan’da yapılacak G-20 Zirvesi öncesinde 18 Mart’ta Londra’da yapılan toplantıda, TÜSİAD Başkanı olarak dile getirdiği önerileri şöyle özetledi:
* G-20 önemli bir oluşum, bunun kurumsallaşması, krizden sonra devam etmesi dünya ekonomisi için faydalı olacak. Çünkü gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dünya ekonomisine faydaları artacak.
* IMF gibi küresel kurumların sorumluluk çerçeveleri değişebilir. IMF kaynaklarının artırılması doğru bir karar. Bu kaynak krizden çıkmak için gerekli yerlere aktarılmalı.
* Bu dönemde, genişleyici maliye politikalarının sonuna kadar kullanılması önemli. Bu ekonominin canlandırılması, tüketimin artırılması açısından önemli.
TÜSİAD Başkanı Yalçındağ, ikinci bölümü İngiltere Başbakanı Gordon Brown’la yapılan toplantılarda, cevap aranan soruları ise şöyle sıraladı:
* Devletleştirme devam mı edecek?
* Korumacılık kabul görür mü?
* Ekonomi yeniden nasıl canlandırılacak?
* IMF’nin rolü mü genişletilmeli, Dünya Bankası’nın mı?
* Öncelik regülasyon mu, yoksa mali politikalar mı olsun?
‘Verginin denetimi siyasallaşmasın’
Doğan Yayın Holding’e (DYH) yönelik vergi cezasına ilişkin sorular üzerine Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, şunları söyledi:
* İş adamları ekonomi kötü demeye korkuyor. Yani bırakın tenkidi, tespit yapmaya korkuyorlar. Çünkü verginin denetimi Türkiye de siyasallaşmış durumda. Her gittiğim yerde bunu görebiliyorum. Demokrasi, verdiğimiz oyun verdiğimiz güç tarafından hakkaniyetli kullanılmasıdır. Aslında bu emaneti güç gösterisi yapmadan kullanmak doğru olan. Onun için elinde gücü tutanlar hassas ve hakkaniyetli davranmalıdırlar.
* Vergi denetiminin özerkleştirilmesi zaten yapılması gereken çok elzem bir konu. Bugünün sorunu değildir. 2003 yılında TÜSİAD’ın yaptığı bir raporda da zaten anlatmışız. Sadece denetim değil aslında bir reformdur bu.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Growing Turkish ire due to job and wage cuts
A man held a gun to his head and another to his chest outside the Turkish prime minister’s office on Monday in a dramatic protest over economic hardship.
It is not the first time Turks hit by economic crisis have turned to melodramatic means to bring their financial troubles to the government’s attention. But with violent protests breaking out in other recession-hit countries, Monday’s incident is a worrying sign for prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he tries to convince voters that Turkey can escape the worst effects of the global downturn.
So far, although trade unions have organised rallies to demonstrate against policies, the economic crisis has not sparked protests in Turkey on the scale of those seen in Greece, Russia or even the UK.
But tales of personal distress in Turkey – the gunman was a retired policeman protesting at his inability to pay off debts – are multiplying as the worldwide manufacturing slump forces Turkish companies to lay off workers or cut wages during halts in production.
The latest data showed unemployment above 12 per cent at the end of 2008, the highest in five years, and economists say these figures may understate the reality due to the scale of the unregistered economy. Banks are reporting rising numbers of small businesses and credit card borrowers unable to pay debts.
Economists worry the prime minister’s drive to win votes in next month’s local elections is undermining fiscal policy, noting that January’s cash budget deficit was almost six times bigger than a year earlier.
The government has announced a limited stimulus package that gives employers bigger subsidies to keep workers they would otherwise lay off, and includes tax breaks aimed at boosting car sales and encouraging investment in the poorer south-east. Further measures under consideration are rumoured to include direct payments to people on low incomes.
“We think the pace of easing in both monetary and fiscal policies is too rapid, and ignores a host of ... weaknesses that set Turkey apart from advanced economies,” said analysts at the consultancy Istanbul Analytics.
Mr Erdogan insists Turkey is a “safe haven” in comparison with some neighbours in eastern Europe and can afford to hold out in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a deal that does not impose unpopular conditions.
It is not the first time Turks hit by economic crisis have turned to melodramatic means to bring their financial troubles to the government’s attention. But with violent protests breaking out in other recession-hit countries, Monday’s incident is a worrying sign for prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he tries to convince voters that Turkey can escape the worst effects of the global downturn.
So far, although trade unions have organised rallies to demonstrate against policies, the economic crisis has not sparked protests in Turkey on the scale of those seen in Greece, Russia or even the UK.
But tales of personal distress in Turkey – the gunman was a retired policeman protesting at his inability to pay off debts – are multiplying as the worldwide manufacturing slump forces Turkish companies to lay off workers or cut wages during halts in production.
The latest data showed unemployment above 12 per cent at the end of 2008, the highest in five years, and economists say these figures may understate the reality due to the scale of the unregistered economy. Banks are reporting rising numbers of small businesses and credit card borrowers unable to pay debts.
Economists worry the prime minister’s drive to win votes in next month’s local elections is undermining fiscal policy, noting that January’s cash budget deficit was almost six times bigger than a year earlier.
The government has announced a limited stimulus package that gives employers bigger subsidies to keep workers they would otherwise lay off, and includes tax breaks aimed at boosting car sales and encouraging investment in the poorer south-east. Further measures under consideration are rumoured to include direct payments to people on low incomes.
“We think the pace of easing in both monetary and fiscal policies is too rapid, and ignores a host of ... weaknesses that set Turkey apart from advanced economies,” said analysts at the consultancy Istanbul Analytics.
Mr Erdogan insists Turkey is a “safe haven” in comparison with some neighbours in eastern Europe and can afford to hold out in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a deal that does not impose unpopular conditions.
Turkish lira hits six-year dollar low
he Turkish lira on Thursday hit a six-year low against the dollar as more analysts advised investors to cut exposure to Turkish assets or buy protection against sharper falls in the currency.
The lira fell to TL1.76 against the dollar, the lowest level since March 2003, before closing down 1.3 per cent at TL1.752. It has lost about 12 per cent of its value against the dollar since the start of the year.
Turkey’s financial system has proved more resilient than that of many neighbours in eastern Europe. But investors assumed interest rate cuts by the central bank would be supported by a new deal with the International Monetary Fund ensuring fiscal discipline.
Now worries are growing over the government’s reluctance to reach agreement with the IMF before local elections in March.
Barclays Capital advised its clients to buy protection against short-term weakness in the lira, saying markets had not fully priced in the risks of a recession as big as that of the 2001 crisis, significant fiscal deterioration and rejection of the IMF. “Turkey is less of a safe haven than some people believe,” said Christian Keller, economist at Barclays Capital, though he noted further lira weakness could “tilt” policymakers to reach an IMF deal.
Lars Rasmussen at Danske Bank also recommends reducing exposure to Turkish assets and Ulrich Leuchtmann, currency strategist at Commerzbank, said: “My recommendation would be to get rid of your Turkish lira.”
Local brokerage Expres Invest predicted Turkish gross domestic product would fall 4.5 per cent this year, and that a high budget deficit was now a bigger risk than Turkey’s current account deficit.
The lira is notoriously volatile, thanks to heavy short-term trading by domestic investors. It is vulnerable to sudden slides. One banker in Istanbul described it as “the most dangerous point in the Turkish economy”.
Chris Scicluna, economist at Daiwa Securities, was more upbeat, saying the lira could look “competitive” once the economy turned the corner. “I’m certainly not bullish, but there are reasons not to totally despair.”
The lira fell to TL1.76 against the dollar, the lowest level since March 2003, before closing down 1.3 per cent at TL1.752. It has lost about 12 per cent of its value against the dollar since the start of the year.
Turkey’s financial system has proved more resilient than that of many neighbours in eastern Europe. But investors assumed interest rate cuts by the central bank would be supported by a new deal with the International Monetary Fund ensuring fiscal discipline.
Now worries are growing over the government’s reluctance to reach agreement with the IMF before local elections in March.
Barclays Capital advised its clients to buy protection against short-term weakness in the lira, saying markets had not fully priced in the risks of a recession as big as that of the 2001 crisis, significant fiscal deterioration and rejection of the IMF. “Turkey is less of a safe haven than some people believe,” said Christian Keller, economist at Barclays Capital, though he noted further lira weakness could “tilt” policymakers to reach an IMF deal.
Lars Rasmussen at Danske Bank also recommends reducing exposure to Turkish assets and Ulrich Leuchtmann, currency strategist at Commerzbank, said: “My recommendation would be to get rid of your Turkish lira.”
Local brokerage Expres Invest predicted Turkish gross domestic product would fall 4.5 per cent this year, and that a high budget deficit was now a bigger risk than Turkey’s current account deficit.
The lira is notoriously volatile, thanks to heavy short-term trading by domestic investors. It is vulnerable to sudden slides. One banker in Istanbul described it as “the most dangerous point in the Turkish economy”.
Chris Scicluna, economist at Daiwa Securities, was more upbeat, saying the lira could look “competitive” once the economy turned the corner. “I’m certainly not bullish, but there are reasons not to totally despair.”
Friday, February 27, 2009
View of the Day: Turkish lira set to tumble
By Ulrich Leuchtmann
The Turkish lira faces the risk of a steep devaluation if the government presses ahead with an expansionary fiscal policy that makes a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund unlikely, says Ulrich Leuchtmann, currency strategist at Commerzbank.
“The government is not prepared to accept the fiscal cuts demanded by the IMF, particularly given that the country is in the middle of an election campaign,” he says. “This year’s budget plan is not worth the paper it is printed on. Spending remained high in January and tax revenues have collapsed.”
Mr Leuchtmann says the Turkish government is “playing with fire” by creating a double deficit (current account and budget deficit) that might interrupt crucial capital inflow.
He notes that Turkish foreign debt amounts to roughly 36 per cent of GDP, while the current account deficit is about 7 per cent of GDP – bad news in the current global environment of very high risk aversion.
“There is no doubt that a restrictive budget policy would be painful at a time of economic downturn,” he says. “But Turkey has only two alternatives to this scenario: either interest rates have to rise sharply, or it has to accept a dramatic lira depreciation. The former looks unlikely given last week’s surprise 150 basis point rate cut.
“Unless the government makes a fiscal policy U-turn after the elections in March, which would probably allow a speedy deal with the IMF, there seems no alternative to lira depreciation.”
The Turkish lira faces the risk of a steep devaluation if the government presses ahead with an expansionary fiscal policy that makes a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund unlikely, says Ulrich Leuchtmann, currency strategist at Commerzbank.
“The government is not prepared to accept the fiscal cuts demanded by the IMF, particularly given that the country is in the middle of an election campaign,” he says. “This year’s budget plan is not worth the paper it is printed on. Spending remained high in January and tax revenues have collapsed.”
Mr Leuchtmann says the Turkish government is “playing with fire” by creating a double deficit (current account and budget deficit) that might interrupt crucial capital inflow.
He notes that Turkish foreign debt amounts to roughly 36 per cent of GDP, while the current account deficit is about 7 per cent of GDP – bad news in the current global environment of very high risk aversion.
“There is no doubt that a restrictive budget policy would be painful at a time of economic downturn,” he says. “But Turkey has only two alternatives to this scenario: either interest rates have to rise sharply, or it has to accept a dramatic lira depreciation. The former looks unlikely given last week’s surprise 150 basis point rate cut.
“Unless the government makes a fiscal policy U-turn after the elections in March, which would probably allow a speedy deal with the IMF, there seems no alternative to lira depreciation.”
Friday, February 20, 2009
Turkish media group given $408m tax fine
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: February 18 2009 23:45 | Last updated: February 18 2009 23:45
Turkey’s biggest media group has once again fallen foul of the authorities, incurring a TL693m ($408m) tax fine at a time when its advertising revenues are set to weaken and its parent company wants to use its cash to expand in other sectors.
Dogan Yayin, which owns TV channels and some of Turkey’s top-selling daily newspapers, on Wednesday disclosed the fine, which is bigger than its current market capitalisation. The group, which plans to appeal, said it had also been ordered to pay back taxes of TL132.9m.
Shares fell 17.7 per cent on Istanbul’s stock exchange on Wednesday, while shares in its parent, Dogan Holding, fell 14.1 per cent.
The penalty is the latest in a string of regulatory decisions against the media and energy conglomerate, controlled by billionaire Aydin Dogan.
Its subsidiary Petrol Ofisi, a fuel distributor in which Austria’s OMV has a 34 per cent stake, faced a tax fine last year but made a deal to pay a reduced amount.
Investors worry that the group could be suffering from a public row between Mr Dogan and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, who last autumn called on his supporters to boycott Dogan publications due to coverage of a corruption scandal.
“This is normal for us. I’m not surprised,” said Dr Ragip Nebil Ilseven, chief executive of Dogan Holding. But Salih Yendi, chief of the tax authority, told Bloomberg neither the fine nor the timing of the announcement was political.
The latest fine relates to profits Dogan Yayin made when it sold its 25 per cent stake in Dogan TV to the German publisher Axel Springer in late 2006 – a partnership it extended recently, with Axel Springer gaining a board seat and a stake in Dogan Yayin.
If the fine were enforced in full, Dogan Holding – which has net cash of about $1.1bn – may have to step in to help its more indebted subsidiary.
Sinan Goksen, analyst at Expres Invest, said that could hinder the group in other projects, including its plan to bid in a 50-50 joint venture with Italy’s Lottomatica in the privatisation of Turkey’s national lottery.
Toygun Onaran, analyst at KBC Financial Products, said that even if the fine were not exacted in full, “this is making the situation unclear, and in this unclear situation nobody wants that risk”.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Published: February 18 2009 23:45 | Last updated: February 18 2009 23:45
Turkey’s biggest media group has once again fallen foul of the authorities, incurring a TL693m ($408m) tax fine at a time when its advertising revenues are set to weaken and its parent company wants to use its cash to expand in other sectors.
Dogan Yayin, which owns TV channels and some of Turkey’s top-selling daily newspapers, on Wednesday disclosed the fine, which is bigger than its current market capitalisation. The group, which plans to appeal, said it had also been ordered to pay back taxes of TL132.9m.
Shares fell 17.7 per cent on Istanbul’s stock exchange on Wednesday, while shares in its parent, Dogan Holding, fell 14.1 per cent.
The penalty is the latest in a string of regulatory decisions against the media and energy conglomerate, controlled by billionaire Aydin Dogan.
Its subsidiary Petrol Ofisi, a fuel distributor in which Austria’s OMV has a 34 per cent stake, faced a tax fine last year but made a deal to pay a reduced amount.
Investors worry that the group could be suffering from a public row between Mr Dogan and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, who last autumn called on his supporters to boycott Dogan publications due to coverage of a corruption scandal.
“This is normal for us. I’m not surprised,” said Dr Ragip Nebil Ilseven, chief executive of Dogan Holding. But Salih Yendi, chief of the tax authority, told Bloomberg neither the fine nor the timing of the announcement was political.
The latest fine relates to profits Dogan Yayin made when it sold its 25 per cent stake in Dogan TV to the German publisher Axel Springer in late 2006 – a partnership it extended recently, with Axel Springer gaining a board seat and a stake in Dogan Yayin.
If the fine were enforced in full, Dogan Holding – which has net cash of about $1.1bn – may have to step in to help its more indebted subsidiary.
Sinan Goksen, analyst at Expres Invest, said that could hinder the group in other projects, including its plan to bid in a 50-50 joint venture with Italy’s Lottomatica in the privatisation of Turkey’s national lottery.
Toygun Onaran, analyst at KBC Financial Products, said that even if the fine were not exacted in full, “this is making the situation unclear, and in this unclear situation nobody wants that risk”.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Turkey rate cut surprises markets
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: February 19 2009 23:37 | Last updated: February 19 2009 23:37
Turkey’s central bank cut its main borrowing rate by 150 basis points on Thursday evening, a much bigger step than markets had expected at a time when eastern European neighbours are considering raising rates to shore up their currencies.
Policymakers have now slashed Turkey’s benchmark borrowing rate by 525 basis points since November. The latest move takes it to a record low of 11.5 per cent. They also cut the lending rate on Thursday from 15.5 per cent to 14 per cent.
Analysts described the decision as “bold”, given the pressure on emerging currencies and Turkey’s delay in reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund that would boost investors’ confidence.
“This is a risky move, especially if one takes into consideration the risk of a contagion from the weakness of [central European] currencies. In this environment, the need for an IMF programme is even higher,” said Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JPMorgan.
The lira slid around 25 per cent against the dollar in 2008, mostly in the final months of the year, but has been relatively stable since the start of 2009, reflecting investors’ perception that Turkey is holding out relatively well in a troubled neighbourhood.
The central bank did not rule out further rate cuts, saying it thought inflation likely to “significantly undershoot target” at the end of the year. It said it would also take new measures to boost foreign exchange liquidity.
Policymakers were responding to growing signs of distress in Turkey’s economy, which most analysts expect will contract or at best stall in the year ahead. Recent figures show employment has hit a four-year high of 12.3 per cent , while industrial production has plunged with car manufacturers’ exports down as much as 60 per cent.
“We think that the policy rate should be lowered as much as possible this year,” said Tevfik Aksoy, economist at Morgan Stanley, arguing it would be the best chance to bring interest rates that have lingered in double digits to manageable levels in the longer term. But Turkey would also need to finalise an IMF deal and tighten fiscal policy immediately after local elections in March, he added.
Analysts at Unicredit said Turkey was among countries “in distinctly better positions” than many others in the region, adding that because domestic consumption was a big driver of growth, any scope for policy stimulus would be “especially precious”.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Published: February 19 2009 23:37 | Last updated: February 19 2009 23:37
Turkey’s central bank cut its main borrowing rate by 150 basis points on Thursday evening, a much bigger step than markets had expected at a time when eastern European neighbours are considering raising rates to shore up their currencies.
Policymakers have now slashed Turkey’s benchmark borrowing rate by 525 basis points since November. The latest move takes it to a record low of 11.5 per cent. They also cut the lending rate on Thursday from 15.5 per cent to 14 per cent.
Analysts described the decision as “bold”, given the pressure on emerging currencies and Turkey’s delay in reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund that would boost investors’ confidence.
“This is a risky move, especially if one takes into consideration the risk of a contagion from the weakness of [central European] currencies. In this environment, the need for an IMF programme is even higher,” said Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JPMorgan.
The lira slid around 25 per cent against the dollar in 2008, mostly in the final months of the year, but has been relatively stable since the start of 2009, reflecting investors’ perception that Turkey is holding out relatively well in a troubled neighbourhood.
The central bank did not rule out further rate cuts, saying it thought inflation likely to “significantly undershoot target” at the end of the year. It said it would also take new measures to boost foreign exchange liquidity.
Policymakers were responding to growing signs of distress in Turkey’s economy, which most analysts expect will contract or at best stall in the year ahead. Recent figures show employment has hit a four-year high of 12.3 per cent , while industrial production has plunged with car manufacturers’ exports down as much as 60 per cent.
“We think that the policy rate should be lowered as much as possible this year,” said Tevfik Aksoy, economist at Morgan Stanley, arguing it would be the best chance to bring interest rates that have lingered in double digits to manageable levels in the longer term. But Turkey would also need to finalise an IMF deal and tighten fiscal policy immediately after local elections in March, he added.
Analysts at Unicredit said Turkey was among countries “in distinctly better positions” than many others in the region, adding that because domestic consumption was a big driver of growth, any scope for policy stimulus would be “especially precious”.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Turkish banks feel heat from bad loans
By Delphine Strauss
Published: February 15 2009 20:12 | Last updated: February 15 2009 20:12
A jump in bad loans hit Turkish banks’ profits in the last quarter of 2008 after a long period in which they had expanded branch networks and rapidly increased consumer credit and lending to small businesses.
Akbank, Turkey’s biggest lender by market value, reported fourth-quarter net income of TL212m ($128m) after the market close on Friday – below expectations and 39 per cent below the third quarter. Net income of TL1.78bn in 2008 was 15 per cent below the previous year.
At Garanti Bank, part-owned by General Electric, unconsolidated net profit fell 14 per cent quarter on quarter to TL350m. Year-end net profit was down 24 per cent from 2007 at TL1.75bn.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect Is Bank, Turkey’s second biggest by market value, to report a 7 per cent drop in full-year earnings.
Turkish banks have largely avoided the travails of their western counterparts and still have sound loan-to-deposit ratios and capital adequacy ratios at 13 per cent or above.
But Tevfik Bilgin, head of Turkey’s banking regulator, has warned that non-performing loans (NPLs) would rise from 2008’s average rate of 3.6 per cent as the economic contraction took its toll on businesses and consumers.
Garanti and Akbank said bad loans had jumped 46 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, in the last quarter – although both are still beating the sector average – and their drop in profits was partly due to higher provisioning expenses. Shares in Garanti, the most actively traded stock on Istanbul’s exchange, rallied on Friday.
But Akbank’s shares fell sharply last week after it emerged some family shareholders planned to sell stakes in both the bank and its parent, Sabanci Holding, totalling more than $1bn even at depressed prices.
Nergis Kasabali, analyst at Ata Invest, said the news would weigh on Akbank’s share price unless a sale to institutional investors was announced soon.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Published: February 15 2009 20:12 | Last updated: February 15 2009 20:12
A jump in bad loans hit Turkish banks’ profits in the last quarter of 2008 after a long period in which they had expanded branch networks and rapidly increased consumer credit and lending to small businesses.
Akbank, Turkey’s biggest lender by market value, reported fourth-quarter net income of TL212m ($128m) after the market close on Friday – below expectations and 39 per cent below the third quarter. Net income of TL1.78bn in 2008 was 15 per cent below the previous year.
At Garanti Bank, part-owned by General Electric, unconsolidated net profit fell 14 per cent quarter on quarter to TL350m. Year-end net profit was down 24 per cent from 2007 at TL1.75bn.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect Is Bank, Turkey’s second biggest by market value, to report a 7 per cent drop in full-year earnings.
Turkish banks have largely avoided the travails of their western counterparts and still have sound loan-to-deposit ratios and capital adequacy ratios at 13 per cent or above.
But Tevfik Bilgin, head of Turkey’s banking regulator, has warned that non-performing loans (NPLs) would rise from 2008’s average rate of 3.6 per cent as the economic contraction took its toll on businesses and consumers.
Garanti and Akbank said bad loans had jumped 46 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, in the last quarter – although both are still beating the sector average – and their drop in profits was partly due to higher provisioning expenses. Shares in Garanti, the most actively traded stock on Istanbul’s exchange, rallied on Friday.
But Akbank’s shares fell sharply last week after it emerged some family shareholders planned to sell stakes in both the bank and its parent, Sabanci Holding, totalling more than $1bn even at depressed prices.
Nergis Kasabali, analyst at Ata Invest, said the news would weigh on Akbank’s share price unless a sale to institutional investors was announced soon.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
Turkey says any IMF deal to be short-term
By Selcuk Gokoluk
ANKARA, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Turkish Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Thursday that a possible IMF loan deal to help the country face a global financial crisis will be for a duration of 18 months to 3 years.
Turkish financial markets have long waited for a fresh loan programme to replace the $10 billion accord which expired last May and shore up the $750 billion economy which has slowed sharply under the impact of the global crisis.
However, protracted IMF talks were suspended in January due to disagreements over its terms, raising concerns about whether a deal -- expected at around $25 billion -- will be agreed. Ambivalent comments have come from Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who has the final say on the fate of the talks, about the likelihood of an agreement.
Analysts say the government may be trying to drag out talks with the Fund in order to avoid having to curtail spending ahead of municipal elections on March 29. Any major IMF stand-by agreement would traditionally be accompanied by strict fiscal conditions.
The IMF has been pushing for tighter fiscal policy and a higher primary surplus while the government has wanted to use IMF money to stimulate economic growth.
In an interview with broadcaster CNBC-e, Simsek said there was no disagreement with the IMF on targets and the contents of the deal and that the outstanding issues were more concerned with technical matters. However, on January 30 Simsek said disagreements were not over minor issues.
'If there is an agreement with the IMF its duration can be a minimum 18 months and it can go up to three years,' Simsek said. Turkey has in the past mostly signed three-year stand-by deals with the IMF.
ANKARA, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Turkish Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Thursday that a possible IMF loan deal to help the country face a global financial crisis will be for a duration of 18 months to 3 years.
Turkish financial markets have long waited for a fresh loan programme to replace the $10 billion accord which expired last May and shore up the $750 billion economy which has slowed sharply under the impact of the global crisis.
However, protracted IMF talks were suspended in January due to disagreements over its terms, raising concerns about whether a deal -- expected at around $25 billion -- will be agreed. Ambivalent comments have come from Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who has the final say on the fate of the talks, about the likelihood of an agreement.
Analysts say the government may be trying to drag out talks with the Fund in order to avoid having to curtail spending ahead of municipal elections on March 29. Any major IMF stand-by agreement would traditionally be accompanied by strict fiscal conditions.
The IMF has been pushing for tighter fiscal policy and a higher primary surplus while the government has wanted to use IMF money to stimulate economic growth.
In an interview with broadcaster CNBC-e, Simsek said there was no disagreement with the IMF on targets and the contents of the deal and that the outstanding issues were more concerned with technical matters. However, on January 30 Simsek said disagreements were not over minor issues.
'If there is an agreement with the IMF its duration can be a minimum 18 months and it can go up to three years,' Simsek said. Turkey has in the past mostly signed three-year stand-by deals with the IMF.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Pressure intensifies for Turkey accord with IMF
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: February 9 2009 23:43 | Last updated: February 9 2009 23:43
Turkey’s government risks losing credibility with investors and missing the best chance in years to tame endemically high inflation and borrowing costs if it backs away from talks with the International Monetary Fund, analysts warn.
An IMF mission left Ankara two weeks ago without reaching agreement about a new financing package.
It has not yet been invited to return, and ministers have made it clear talks will not resume until big differences are resolved.
For months investors have been counting on Turkey securing at least $20bn (€15.6bn, £13.6bn) in IMF funding. Many now wonder if Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, who said on Monday Turkey could manage with or without the IMF, will commit to a deal requiring unpopular fiscal tightening.
“The government’s credit is running out,” said Ahmet Akarli, economist at Goldman Sachs. “People are not in panic but everyone is watching this much more closely than two months ago.”
The IMF accepts that Turkey’s public debt will rise this year, when it forecasts a 1.5 per cent contraction in GDP. But it wants a tougher fiscal rule and controls on municipality spending to restore the budget balance in later years.
Mr Erdogan is understandably reluctant to announce such a depressing growth outlook and difficult remedy just before local elections in March – especially as Turkey has to date weathered the crisis much better than eastern European neighbours.
“There is a feeling in the market that Turkey is holding out better in a troubled region,” said Christian Keller at Barclays Capital. Chris Scicluna at Daiwa Securities said Turkey’s tough negotiating tactics reflected “relative underlying strengths”.
The delay has had surprisingly little impact on asset prices or the lira – largely because most investors still expect a deal once elections are over. But to delay leaves Turkey vulnerable to any global upset or signs of trouble in its own economy. Analysts estimate it faces a financing gap of $15bn-$30bn in 2009 and say it will need IMF money to avoid a deeper recession or a lira slide.
If the government were to sign a deal only under duress, after a collapse in confidence, the IMF could impose more stringent terms, Mr Akarli warned. But he thought Turkey might “muddle through 2009” without external help.
Observers also worry the government’s promises of fiscal discipline ring increasingly hollow. Mr Keller said public finances had deteriorated before the crisis. Turker Hamzaoglu, at Merrill Lynch, said: “The government will be perceived as showing reluctance to run prudent fiscal policies.”
Without the anchor of an IMF programme Turkey could also miss a rare chance to bring inflation and interest rates decisively into single digits. Now inflation is subsiding despite the lira’s decline. The central bank has cut rates since November to a record 13 per cent.
Further cuts will depend on tight fiscal policy and an IMF deal. “This is a once in a decade chance to get real interest rates down,” Mr Keller said. “This must be the way to convince politicians.”
● New banknotes depicting a 19th century writer have sparked an online battle between supporters and opponents of Turkey’s socially conservative government, writes Delphine Strauss.
Critics of the ruling Justice and Development party, alert to any hint of deviation from Turkey’s secular constitution, are furious that the 50 lira note carries a picture of Fatma Aliye Hanım. She married at 16 and published her work, signing herself “a woman”, only after winning her husband’s consent.
The central bank says it chose to celebrate someone believed to be Turkey’s first female novelist because she was a prominent defender of women’s rights in the context of her time.
But others claim she favoured Islamic law and regretted the creation of the modern state founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Published: February 9 2009 23:43 | Last updated: February 9 2009 23:43
Turkey’s government risks losing credibility with investors and missing the best chance in years to tame endemically high inflation and borrowing costs if it backs away from talks with the International Monetary Fund, analysts warn.
An IMF mission left Ankara two weeks ago without reaching agreement about a new financing package.
It has not yet been invited to return, and ministers have made it clear talks will not resume until big differences are resolved.
For months investors have been counting on Turkey securing at least $20bn (€15.6bn, £13.6bn) in IMF funding. Many now wonder if Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, who said on Monday Turkey could manage with or without the IMF, will commit to a deal requiring unpopular fiscal tightening.
“The government’s credit is running out,” said Ahmet Akarli, economist at Goldman Sachs. “People are not in panic but everyone is watching this much more closely than two months ago.”
The IMF accepts that Turkey’s public debt will rise this year, when it forecasts a 1.5 per cent contraction in GDP. But it wants a tougher fiscal rule and controls on municipality spending to restore the budget balance in later years.
Mr Erdogan is understandably reluctant to announce such a depressing growth outlook and difficult remedy just before local elections in March – especially as Turkey has to date weathered the crisis much better than eastern European neighbours.
“There is a feeling in the market that Turkey is holding out better in a troubled region,” said Christian Keller at Barclays Capital. Chris Scicluna at Daiwa Securities said Turkey’s tough negotiating tactics reflected “relative underlying strengths”.
The delay has had surprisingly little impact on asset prices or the lira – largely because most investors still expect a deal once elections are over. But to delay leaves Turkey vulnerable to any global upset or signs of trouble in its own economy. Analysts estimate it faces a financing gap of $15bn-$30bn in 2009 and say it will need IMF money to avoid a deeper recession or a lira slide.
If the government were to sign a deal only under duress, after a collapse in confidence, the IMF could impose more stringent terms, Mr Akarli warned. But he thought Turkey might “muddle through 2009” without external help.
Observers also worry the government’s promises of fiscal discipline ring increasingly hollow. Mr Keller said public finances had deteriorated before the crisis. Turker Hamzaoglu, at Merrill Lynch, said: “The government will be perceived as showing reluctance to run prudent fiscal policies.”
Without the anchor of an IMF programme Turkey could also miss a rare chance to bring inflation and interest rates decisively into single digits. Now inflation is subsiding despite the lira’s decline. The central bank has cut rates since November to a record 13 per cent.
Further cuts will depend on tight fiscal policy and an IMF deal. “This is a once in a decade chance to get real interest rates down,” Mr Keller said. “This must be the way to convince politicians.”
● New banknotes depicting a 19th century writer have sparked an online battle between supporters and opponents of Turkey’s socially conservative government, writes Delphine Strauss.
Critics of the ruling Justice and Development party, alert to any hint of deviation from Turkey’s secular constitution, are furious that the 50 lira note carries a picture of Fatma Aliye Hanım. She married at 16 and published her work, signing herself “a woman”, only after winning her husband’s consent.
The central bank says it chose to celebrate someone believed to be Turkey’s first female novelist because she was a prominent defender of women’s rights in the context of her time.
But others claim she favoured Islamic law and regretted the creation of the modern state founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Disappointing launch for Turkey’s Islamic bonds
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: January 28 2009 17:07 | Last updated: January 28 2009 17:07
Turkey’s launch of bonds designed to appeal to Islamic investors fell flat on Wednesday, raising only a quarter of the 1.89bn Turkish lira ($1.16bn) the Treasury had hoped for.
Banks bought just TL420.7m ($260m) and $49.1m worth of the new revenue-linked bonds, which rely on income from state bodies such as the airports authority and Turkish Petroleum Corporation rather than on interest rates, the Treasury said.
Turkey’s ruling Justice & Development (AK) party, often accused by its opponents of having a religious agenda, prefers not to term the new instrument “sukuk”, though it is aimed at meeting Islamic rules forbidding interest payments.
But the government, which is seeking IMF help to close an external financing gap estimated at between $15bn and $30bn in 2009, is keen to diversify borrowing and tap new sources of foreign capital.
Wednesday’s sovereign issue was Turkey’s first suitable for Islamic investors since a brief venture in the 1990s, and the lacklustre reception is a setback to its efforts to win a bigger share of Gulf petrodollars.
It is not clear how many Gulf institutions participated, but domestic investors hold most of Turkey’s sovereign debt. Much of the interest may have come from Turkish “participation banks” – the term for those offering Islamic finance - unable to join in previous Treasury debt auctions.
Albaraka Turk, one of the bigger participation banks, said it had bought TL100m and $5m worth of the bonds. It had previously invested in sukuk bonds issued by Bahrain.
“This is a very illiquid product,” said Senay Ugur Ustay, at Ata Invest, adding many investors would be deterred by the lack of a secondary market.
She said most preferred short term instruments, while the new bonds have a maturity of more than 3 years. Banks could also be waiting until big government debt redemptions next month set a benchmark for prices.
Published: January 28 2009 17:07 | Last updated: January 28 2009 17:07
Turkey’s launch of bonds designed to appeal to Islamic investors fell flat on Wednesday, raising only a quarter of the 1.89bn Turkish lira ($1.16bn) the Treasury had hoped for.
Banks bought just TL420.7m ($260m) and $49.1m worth of the new revenue-linked bonds, which rely on income from state bodies such as the airports authority and Turkish Petroleum Corporation rather than on interest rates, the Treasury said.
Turkey’s ruling Justice & Development (AK) party, often accused by its opponents of having a religious agenda, prefers not to term the new instrument “sukuk”, though it is aimed at meeting Islamic rules forbidding interest payments.
But the government, which is seeking IMF help to close an external financing gap estimated at between $15bn and $30bn in 2009, is keen to diversify borrowing and tap new sources of foreign capital.
Wednesday’s sovereign issue was Turkey’s first suitable for Islamic investors since a brief venture in the 1990s, and the lacklustre reception is a setback to its efforts to win a bigger share of Gulf petrodollars.
It is not clear how many Gulf institutions participated, but domestic investors hold most of Turkey’s sovereign debt. Much of the interest may have come from Turkish “participation banks” – the term for those offering Islamic finance - unable to join in previous Treasury debt auctions.
Albaraka Turk, one of the bigger participation banks, said it had bought TL100m and $5m worth of the bonds. It had previously invested in sukuk bonds issued by Bahrain.
“This is a very illiquid product,” said Senay Ugur Ustay, at Ata Invest, adding many investors would be deterred by the lack of a secondary market.
She said most preferred short term instruments, while the new bonds have a maturity of more than 3 years. Banks could also be waiting until big government debt redemptions next month set a benchmark for prices.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Turkey to renew IMF talks on financial package
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: January 27 2009 12:53 | Last updated: January 27 2009 12:53
Turkey will continue talks to secure a new financing package from the International Monetary Fund after a ten day break, prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday after an IMF mission left Ankara without reaching an agreement.
Disagreements over fiscal reform, despite progress on other areas, caused the talks to stall, according to statements issued by the Fund and Treasury on Monday evening after more than two weeks of intense negotiations.
The inconclusive pause came as a surprise after hints from Turkey’s central bank governor that an agreement was imminent. Investors had expected concrete news before Mr Erdogan and Mehmet Simsek, treasury minister, left to attend the World Economic Forum at Davos .
Yarkin Cebeci, an economist at JPMorgan, said the delay suggested there were still big differences, or a need “for some more political commitment from Mr Erdogan.”
Despite growing impatience among investors, Turkey’s ruling AKP party has only inched towards a new IMF deal since its last $10bn stand-by programme expired in May, reluctant to accept constraints on spending in the run-up to local elections.
But the government now concedes Turkey faces a financing gap of up to $30bn in 2009, and will need to sign a stand-by arrangement giving upfront access to IMF funds. At the start of the year, it announced spending cuts designed to meet IMF concerns, though some further reductions would be required to secure a deal.
Analysts said the remaining differences, over “medium term structural fiscal reform” in the IMF’s wording, probably centred on fiscal rules and public sector reform.
Nurhan Toguc, analyst at Ata Invest, added the IMF would be unwilling to finance some planned tax cuts, restructuring of tax arrears and agricultural subsidies, and could have questions over three months of aggressive central bank rate cuts.
Mr Erdogan said he would meet John Lipsky, IMF deputy managing director, in Davos this week before talks resumed. But the halt increases the risk of a deal being postponed until after local elections in late March.
“Short-term political consideration seems to have a major impact on the economic decisions taken by the AKP government,” said Wolfango Piccoli, at Eurasia group, attacking policymakers for “complacency and a risky sense of over-confidence.”
Economists say Turkey’s economy may have contracted as much as 5 per cent in the last quarter of 2008, judging by big falls in industrial production and capacity utilisation. The ratings agency Moody’s forecasts it will contract 0.8 per cent in 2009.
Published: January 27 2009 12:53 | Last updated: January 27 2009 12:53
Turkey will continue talks to secure a new financing package from the International Monetary Fund after a ten day break, prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday after an IMF mission left Ankara without reaching an agreement.
Disagreements over fiscal reform, despite progress on other areas, caused the talks to stall, according to statements issued by the Fund and Treasury on Monday evening after more than two weeks of intense negotiations.
The inconclusive pause came as a surprise after hints from Turkey’s central bank governor that an agreement was imminent. Investors had expected concrete news before Mr Erdogan and Mehmet Simsek, treasury minister, left to attend the World Economic Forum at Davos .
Yarkin Cebeci, an economist at JPMorgan, said the delay suggested there were still big differences, or a need “for some more political commitment from Mr Erdogan.”
Despite growing impatience among investors, Turkey’s ruling AKP party has only inched towards a new IMF deal since its last $10bn stand-by programme expired in May, reluctant to accept constraints on spending in the run-up to local elections.
But the government now concedes Turkey faces a financing gap of up to $30bn in 2009, and will need to sign a stand-by arrangement giving upfront access to IMF funds. At the start of the year, it announced spending cuts designed to meet IMF concerns, though some further reductions would be required to secure a deal.
Analysts said the remaining differences, over “medium term structural fiscal reform” in the IMF’s wording, probably centred on fiscal rules and public sector reform.
Nurhan Toguc, analyst at Ata Invest, added the IMF would be unwilling to finance some planned tax cuts, restructuring of tax arrears and agricultural subsidies, and could have questions over three months of aggressive central bank rate cuts.
Mr Erdogan said he would meet John Lipsky, IMF deputy managing director, in Davos this week before talks resumed. But the halt increases the risk of a deal being postponed until after local elections in late March.
“Short-term political consideration seems to have a major impact on the economic decisions taken by the AKP government,” said Wolfango Piccoli, at Eurasia group, attacking policymakers for “complacency and a risky sense of over-confidence.”
Economists say Turkey’s economy may have contracted as much as 5 per cent in the last quarter of 2008, judging by big falls in industrial production and capacity utilisation. The ratings agency Moody’s forecasts it will contract 0.8 per cent in 2009.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Turkey hit by grim growth data
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: December 15 2008 20:55 | Last updated: December 15 2008 20:55
Turkey aims to close a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund at the start of January, the government confirmed on Monday, as the weakest quarterly growth in six years prompted analysts to forecast a technical recession.
Gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2008 grew just 0.5 per cent from the same quarter of 2007, official data showed, down from 2.3 per cent in the second quarter. That took year-on-year growth for the first nine months of 2008 to 3 per cent – less than half the previous five-year average.
Separate data showed unemployment hit double-digit figures in September, reaching 10.3 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent in the same month of 2007.
The figures belie ministers’ repeated assertion that Turkey will suffer only mild effects from the global crisis and underline the urgency of sealing an agreement with the IMF on a financing package. Investors are hoping Turkey will secure $20bn (€14bn, £13bn) of funding to help plug its financing gap.
“Today’s grim data will remind the authorities just how exposed the country is to the global credit crunch,” said Neil Shearing, at Capital Economics in London.
Since Turkey completed its $10bn, three-year IMF programme in May, the ruling Justice & Development party (AKP) has been reluctant to enter a scheme that would constrain spending before local elections in the spring.
But after weeks of wrangling, the government has accepted it will have to revisit budget plans based on a forecast of 4 per cent annual GDP growth and on revenue assumptions the IMF considers to be wildly optimistic.
The Treasury said on Monday that it had invited an IMF mission to visit Ankara in January. An IMF statement confirmed there had been “considerable progress” in technical discussions that could lead to a programme.
The negotiations in January will determine how much funding Turkey can access and how it balances the budget – although the IMF will stress that productive investments should be postponed rather than cancelled.
There is no agreement yet on the growth assumption that will underpin the programme. But analysts noted on Monday that quarter-on-quarter growth was negative and several predicted the economy would shrink at least until the second quarter of 2009 – meeting one definition of a technical recession.
“A sharp economic downturn and a further currency correction now look almost inevitable,” said Ahmet Akarli, economist at Goldman Sachs, noting that political problems could resurface as recession would hit the AKP’s core supporters among the urban poor and small businesses.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Published: December 15 2008 20:55 | Last updated: December 15 2008 20:55
Turkey aims to close a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund at the start of January, the government confirmed on Monday, as the weakest quarterly growth in six years prompted analysts to forecast a technical recession.
Gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2008 grew just 0.5 per cent from the same quarter of 2007, official data showed, down from 2.3 per cent in the second quarter. That took year-on-year growth for the first nine months of 2008 to 3 per cent – less than half the previous five-year average.
Separate data showed unemployment hit double-digit figures in September, reaching 10.3 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent in the same month of 2007.
The figures belie ministers’ repeated assertion that Turkey will suffer only mild effects from the global crisis and underline the urgency of sealing an agreement with the IMF on a financing package. Investors are hoping Turkey will secure $20bn (€14bn, £13bn) of funding to help plug its financing gap.
“Today’s grim data will remind the authorities just how exposed the country is to the global credit crunch,” said Neil Shearing, at Capital Economics in London.
Since Turkey completed its $10bn, three-year IMF programme in May, the ruling Justice & Development party (AKP) has been reluctant to enter a scheme that would constrain spending before local elections in the spring.
But after weeks of wrangling, the government has accepted it will have to revisit budget plans based on a forecast of 4 per cent annual GDP growth and on revenue assumptions the IMF considers to be wildly optimistic.
The Treasury said on Monday that it had invited an IMF mission to visit Ankara in January. An IMF statement confirmed there had been “considerable progress” in technical discussions that could lead to a programme.
The negotiations in January will determine how much funding Turkey can access and how it balances the budget – although the IMF will stress that productive investments should be postponed rather than cancelled.
There is no agreement yet on the growth assumption that will underpin the programme. But analysts noted on Monday that quarter-on-quarter growth was negative and several predicted the economy would shrink at least until the second quarter of 2009 – meeting one definition of a technical recession.
“A sharp economic downturn and a further currency correction now look almost inevitable,” said Ahmet Akarli, economist at Goldman Sachs, noting that political problems could resurface as recession would hit the AKP’s core supporters among the urban poor and small businesses.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Turkey Tries to Resist Aid From I.M.F.
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
ISTANBUL — Not so long ago, countries like Turkey — fast-growing but prone to missteps — would go hat in hand to the International Monetary Fund during just about every big financial crisis to beg for money to bail them out of their difficulties.
How times have changed. These days, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey’s top economic policy maker, is doing everything he can to try to persuade the world that his government is not in need of the typical multibillion-dollar aid package from the I.M.F.
Turkey’s budget deficit is negligible, Mr. Simsek says. Its banks are well capitalized. And Turkish public and private debt are low as a percentage of gross domestic product.
“We have good policies,” Mr. Simsek said in an interview at the Swiss Hotel in Istanbul, where he had come to defend his government’s economic policies at a World Economic Forum conference. “One would hope that the markets would say that there is little role for the I.M.F.”
But is anybody listening?
In the middle of a global financial panic, investors, suddenly risk-averse, care little for such virtues. Like other emerging economies around the world, Turkey’s stock market and currency have been battered as foreign capital — once enamored with the country’s buoyant growth and successful economic reforms — has fled en masse.
Now, whether it wants to or not, Turkey is faced with the awkward prospect of being forced to accept stringent fiscal conditions to obtain I.M.F. money to replace the disappearing private capital just as its economy is caught in the global slowdown.
Having thought they were done with the I.M.F. after completing a three-year $10 billion program this May, Turkey’s policy makers cannot help asking why they have to pay the price for a crisis that, unlike previous ones, was not their doing.
But not all of Turkey’s problems can be laid at the door of others.
Turkey may only grow 2 percent next year, nowhere near what is necessary to provide employment opportunities for its young and growing population. About 40 percent of Turkey’s youth population is estimated to be unemployed.
Further, Turkish corporations gorged on easy foreign debt, leaving them saddled with obligations that far surpass their dollar assets. UBS estimates the mismatch to be $73 billion.
While an agreement could come at any time, talks between the Turkish government and the I.M.F. are now suspended, with Turkey pushing for more spending flexibility and the I.M.F. advising fiscal prudence.
Mr. Simsek says what is needed is a precautionary stand-by agreement and continued monitoring, but many outside investors say that Turkey requires a more direct rescue — akin to binding pacts reached with Ukraine, Pakistan and Hungary — to appease fretful markets.
Mr. Simsek’s bold talk has found loud echoes in all corners of Turkish life — from the intelligentsia, to the corporate sector to the man on the street. And it highlights a pressing economic and political dilemma for many emerging economies which over the years have imposed painful and difficult reforms, finally reaped the benefits and now — as foreigners retreat — find themselves pulled into a time warp they thought they had left behind.
Over the years, the Turkish stock market has come to define the essence of the high-risk, high-return calculus that investors weigh when they invest in emerging markets. Through 2001, spectacular market rallies would inevitably conclude with a crash and a currency collapse as weak governments and poor economic decision-making took their toll.
Still, under the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has made enormous strides since its last crash in 2001. Inflation has shrunk to 9 percent, from 60 percent, G.D.P. per capita has tripled to $10,500 and foreign direct investment reached $19 billion last year.
The main downside has been a rise in Turkey’s current-account deficit, which was mostly a consequence of the investment influx.
It was a wonderful time to be part of the Turkish business elite. And as the markets rose, a new generation of Turkish billionaires emerged.
Listening to the young heads of two of Turkey’s largest banking families — Suzan Sabanci Dincer of Akbank and Ferit Sahenk, the chairman of Dogus Holding — one may be tempted to think that Turkey’s economy will emerge from the crisis stronger than before.
“Wow, that is optimistic,” said a surprised moderator at one of the World Economic Forum sessions here. “Are you really saying you can get over this?”
Erkut Soyak, the chairman of a large industrial conglomerate, has a longer memory. The activities of Soyak Holding — real estate development, energy and construction — lie at the core of the robust 7 percent growth rates Turkey has averaged since 2002. But with banks no longer financing these investments, he has had to shelve development projects worth close to half a billion dollars in recent months.
“We are investors,” he said, sitting in the spare boardroom next to his office located in central Istanbul. “When we don’t invest that is when the trouble starts and you start to see more unemployment. All financing now has stopped — even short term.”
The draining of the credit pool is already having a visible effect.
Just down the hill from the conference, past rows of empty luxury stores selling Marc Jacobs handbags and Jimmy Choo shoes for $1,000, Yavuz Aydemir, a 62-year-old pensioner, reeled in a gray mullet from the brilliant green waters of the Bosporus and considered his country’s condition.
“When America coughs, the world catches a cold,” he said. But plunging markets have not caused him to panic. He keeps his $10,000 in life savings in a Turkish bank and has trust in the currency and his government.
“The foreigners may be running, but we Turks — we don’t scare so easily,” he said with a laugh.
Turkish financiers may not be running scared but there is a general frustration — as well as a sense of irony — that a crisis that began with the broad dispensing of low-income loans in places like California and Arizona is forcing them into the arms of the I.M.F. — again.
Some Turkish bankers talk scornfully of the amounts of leverage taken on by American investment banks.
That Turkish banks, which less than 10 years ago did little more than speculate in the local bond market, can now lecture their American counterparts on their risk profiles underscores the extent to which the tables have now turned.
“The problem is not with us,” said Ergun Ozen, the chief executive of Garanti Bank, a leading commercial bank, in explaining why Turkish banks have stopped lending. “It is with the international banks. They used to lend a lot to Turkey. Now they don’t have any money for us.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
ISTANBUL — Not so long ago, countries like Turkey — fast-growing but prone to missteps — would go hat in hand to the International Monetary Fund during just about every big financial crisis to beg for money to bail them out of their difficulties.
How times have changed. These days, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey’s top economic policy maker, is doing everything he can to try to persuade the world that his government is not in need of the typical multibillion-dollar aid package from the I.M.F.
Turkey’s budget deficit is negligible, Mr. Simsek says. Its banks are well capitalized. And Turkish public and private debt are low as a percentage of gross domestic product.
“We have good policies,” Mr. Simsek said in an interview at the Swiss Hotel in Istanbul, where he had come to defend his government’s economic policies at a World Economic Forum conference. “One would hope that the markets would say that there is little role for the I.M.F.”
But is anybody listening?
In the middle of a global financial panic, investors, suddenly risk-averse, care little for such virtues. Like other emerging economies around the world, Turkey’s stock market and currency have been battered as foreign capital — once enamored with the country’s buoyant growth and successful economic reforms — has fled en masse.
Now, whether it wants to or not, Turkey is faced with the awkward prospect of being forced to accept stringent fiscal conditions to obtain I.M.F. money to replace the disappearing private capital just as its economy is caught in the global slowdown.
Having thought they were done with the I.M.F. after completing a three-year $10 billion program this May, Turkey’s policy makers cannot help asking why they have to pay the price for a crisis that, unlike previous ones, was not their doing.
But not all of Turkey’s problems can be laid at the door of others.
Turkey may only grow 2 percent next year, nowhere near what is necessary to provide employment opportunities for its young and growing population. About 40 percent of Turkey’s youth population is estimated to be unemployed.
Further, Turkish corporations gorged on easy foreign debt, leaving them saddled with obligations that far surpass their dollar assets. UBS estimates the mismatch to be $73 billion.
While an agreement could come at any time, talks between the Turkish government and the I.M.F. are now suspended, with Turkey pushing for more spending flexibility and the I.M.F. advising fiscal prudence.
Mr. Simsek says what is needed is a precautionary stand-by agreement and continued monitoring, but many outside investors say that Turkey requires a more direct rescue — akin to binding pacts reached with Ukraine, Pakistan and Hungary — to appease fretful markets.
Mr. Simsek’s bold talk has found loud echoes in all corners of Turkish life — from the intelligentsia, to the corporate sector to the man on the street. And it highlights a pressing economic and political dilemma for many emerging economies which over the years have imposed painful and difficult reforms, finally reaped the benefits and now — as foreigners retreat — find themselves pulled into a time warp they thought they had left behind.
Over the years, the Turkish stock market has come to define the essence of the high-risk, high-return calculus that investors weigh when they invest in emerging markets. Through 2001, spectacular market rallies would inevitably conclude with a crash and a currency collapse as weak governments and poor economic decision-making took their toll.
Still, under the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has made enormous strides since its last crash in 2001. Inflation has shrunk to 9 percent, from 60 percent, G.D.P. per capita has tripled to $10,500 and foreign direct investment reached $19 billion last year.
The main downside has been a rise in Turkey’s current-account deficit, which was mostly a consequence of the investment influx.
It was a wonderful time to be part of the Turkish business elite. And as the markets rose, a new generation of Turkish billionaires emerged.
Listening to the young heads of two of Turkey’s largest banking families — Suzan Sabanci Dincer of Akbank and Ferit Sahenk, the chairman of Dogus Holding — one may be tempted to think that Turkey’s economy will emerge from the crisis stronger than before.
“Wow, that is optimistic,” said a surprised moderator at one of the World Economic Forum sessions here. “Are you really saying you can get over this?”
Erkut Soyak, the chairman of a large industrial conglomerate, has a longer memory. The activities of Soyak Holding — real estate development, energy and construction — lie at the core of the robust 7 percent growth rates Turkey has averaged since 2002. But with banks no longer financing these investments, he has had to shelve development projects worth close to half a billion dollars in recent months.
“We are investors,” he said, sitting in the spare boardroom next to his office located in central Istanbul. “When we don’t invest that is when the trouble starts and you start to see more unemployment. All financing now has stopped — even short term.”
The draining of the credit pool is already having a visible effect.
Just down the hill from the conference, past rows of empty luxury stores selling Marc Jacobs handbags and Jimmy Choo shoes for $1,000, Yavuz Aydemir, a 62-year-old pensioner, reeled in a gray mullet from the brilliant green waters of the Bosporus and considered his country’s condition.
“When America coughs, the world catches a cold,” he said. But plunging markets have not caused him to panic. He keeps his $10,000 in life savings in a Turkish bank and has trust in the currency and his government.
“The foreigners may be running, but we Turks — we don’t scare so easily,” he said with a laugh.
Turkish financiers may not be running scared but there is a general frustration — as well as a sense of irony — that a crisis that began with the broad dispensing of low-income loans in places like California and Arizona is forcing them into the arms of the I.M.F. — again.
Some Turkish bankers talk scornfully of the amounts of leverage taken on by American investment banks.
That Turkish banks, which less than 10 years ago did little more than speculate in the local bond market, can now lecture their American counterparts on their risk profiles underscores the extent to which the tables have now turned.
“The problem is not with us,” said Ergun Ozen, the chief executive of Garanti Bank, a leading commercial bank, in explaining why Turkish banks have stopped lending. “It is with the international banks. They used to lend a lot to Turkey. Now they don’t have any money for us.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
Friday, December 5, 2008
Turkey ‘set to sign IMF accord
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: December 4 2008 19:55 | Last updated: December 4 2008 19:55
Turkey could sign an agreement with the International Monetary Fund by the end of the year, but will not answer business lobbies’ calls for a cut in value added tax, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, said on Thursday.
His government faces increasingly savage criticism from business and investors for denying Turkey faces a serious economic downturn, delaying an IMF deal to secure its external financing needs, and failing to deliver a significant economic stimulus package.
Two weeks ago, Mr Erdogan said Turkey was close to reaching a new deal with the Fund, after its last three year, $10bn programme expired in May. Leaked comments from party officials suggested it could allow access to funding of more than $20bn.
But although talks with the IMF are continuing, Turkey has still not made a formal request for help, and with the country now winding down for a week-long public holiday, time is running out to reach an agreement before the new year.
The delay is largely due to the government’s unwillingness to revise its growth target and cut spending ahead of local elections in March.
Moody’s warned this week that failure to sign a deal would push the economy into recession – a view contested by Zafer Caglayan, industry minister. Tusiad, the main business lobby, also criticised Mr Erdogan for saying the worst of the crisis was over – in a TV address backed by glossy footage of his latest overseas trips.
But unemployment is already rising, exports have dropped sharply despite a slide in the lira’s value, and retailers are banding together to hold discount weeks as consumer spending falters.
Analysts say the prime minister is likely to sign a deal eventually – and to opt for a stand-by programme offering upfront access to funds, rather than a precautionary arrangement.
Some speculate that the government would prefer to wait until early next year – so that the first three-month assessment of adherence to the programme’s conditions would fall after the elections.
But the government is also struggling to reconcile the IMF’s demands for fiscal rectitude with business calls for tax cuts, cheap credit and industrial bail-outs.
Mr Erdogan appears to be resisting the more profligate demands, saying on Thursday that a VAT cut would be incompatible with an IMF deal and suggesting the promised stimulus package would in fact consist of modest measures already announced.
“Turkey can do very little,” said Ahmet Akarli, economist at Goldman Sachs. “It’s not printing its own dollars, you have very limited means.” He added that a recession appeared inevitable as credit tightened and domestic demand slumped.
The consultancy Istanbul Analytics said the ruling Justice & Development party, whose electoral strength has coincided with a sustained spell of prosperity, would not want to “choose between financial stability and growth”, but added that unless the credit backdroup improved miraculously, “You can’t have both.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Published: December 4 2008 19:55 | Last updated: December 4 2008 19:55
Turkey could sign an agreement with the International Monetary Fund by the end of the year, but will not answer business lobbies’ calls for a cut in value added tax, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, said on Thursday.
His government faces increasingly savage criticism from business and investors for denying Turkey faces a serious economic downturn, delaying an IMF deal to secure its external financing needs, and failing to deliver a significant economic stimulus package.
Two weeks ago, Mr Erdogan said Turkey was close to reaching a new deal with the Fund, after its last three year, $10bn programme expired in May. Leaked comments from party officials suggested it could allow access to funding of more than $20bn.
But although talks with the IMF are continuing, Turkey has still not made a formal request for help, and with the country now winding down for a week-long public holiday, time is running out to reach an agreement before the new year.
The delay is largely due to the government’s unwillingness to revise its growth target and cut spending ahead of local elections in March.
Moody’s warned this week that failure to sign a deal would push the economy into recession – a view contested by Zafer Caglayan, industry minister. Tusiad, the main business lobby, also criticised Mr Erdogan for saying the worst of the crisis was over – in a TV address backed by glossy footage of his latest overseas trips.
But unemployment is already rising, exports have dropped sharply despite a slide in the lira’s value, and retailers are banding together to hold discount weeks as consumer spending falters.
Analysts say the prime minister is likely to sign a deal eventually – and to opt for a stand-by programme offering upfront access to funds, rather than a precautionary arrangement.
Some speculate that the government would prefer to wait until early next year – so that the first three-month assessment of adherence to the programme’s conditions would fall after the elections.
But the government is also struggling to reconcile the IMF’s demands for fiscal rectitude with business calls for tax cuts, cheap credit and industrial bail-outs.
Mr Erdogan appears to be resisting the more profligate demands, saying on Thursday that a VAT cut would be incompatible with an IMF deal and suggesting the promised stimulus package would in fact consist of modest measures already announced.
“Turkey can do very little,” said Ahmet Akarli, economist at Goldman Sachs. “It’s not printing its own dollars, you have very limited means.” He added that a recession appeared inevitable as credit tightened and domestic demand slumped.
The consultancy Istanbul Analytics said the ruling Justice & Development party, whose electoral strength has coincided with a sustained spell of prosperity, would not want to “choose between financial stability and growth”, but added that unless the credit backdroup improved miraculously, “You can’t have both.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
Istanbul’s optimism wearing thin
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara
Published: November 16 2008 21:10 | Last updated: November 16 2008 21:10
Turkish bankers are more familiar with the convulsions in global finance than most.
In 2001 some two-fifths of the country’s banks failed after a spree of irresponsible, sometimes corrupt, lending. Rescuing and recapitalising these institutions cost a crippling 30 per cent of gross domestic product and plunged the economy into deep recession.
Yet it is thanks to that forced restructuring that Turkish banks now look almost solid compared with their shaky western counterparts.
For the sector as a whole, capital ratios range from 15-25 per cent, research by Moody’s found, while the loan to deposit ratio stood at 85 per cent in June, and retail deposits account for the bulk of banks’ funding.
But, Istanbul bankers’ early optimism is now wearing thin as Turkey increasingly feels the effects of global credit tightening and a sharp domestic downturn.
Third-quarter earnings will be 35 per cent lower than last quarter, due to trading losses and lower dividend and non-interest income, according to analysts at Credit Suisse.
Among banks that have already reported, Garanti revealed a 20 per cent quarter on quarter fall in net earnings and loan growth of just 4 per cent.
George Chrysaphinis, analyst at Moody’s, says for the global financial crisis to hurt Turkey’s banks, it has to reach the real economy first. “Only now are we entering that phase. What we don’t know is how severe it is going to be.”
One big vulnerability is the financial sector’s exposure to sudden swings in the lira’s value. Banks no longer have big direct exposure to foreign exchange borrowing, which proved devastating when the currency plunged in 2001. But their customers are highly sensitive to exchange rates.
When the lira tumbled along with other emerging market currencies last month, analysts estimate foreign exchange deposits in the banking system shrank by $10bn-$11bn. About $6bn was converted into Turkish lira deposits, but the rest disappeared – perhaps under the mattresses of consumers with long memories.
“This is making the balance sheet structure of banks change dramatically,” says Suzan Sabanci Dincer, chairwoman of Akbank, Turkey’s second-largest bank by assets.
A bigger worry is banks’ indirect exposure to exchange rate risk through the borrowing of non-financial companies – whose net foreign exchange liabilities were more than $80bn in the second quarter of 2008.
Sustained depreciation in the lira would hit companies with heavy, unhedged foreign currency borrowing – with a knock-on effect for banks’ balance sheets.
Views differ on the severity of the threat. Optimists argue that short-term foreign exposure is much lower than in the past and that owners would use family assets to bail out their companies in a crisis.
“When we lend to medium-sized companies, we always take guarantees from the owners,” Ms Sabanci Dincer says. But she added Akbank would for now be extending foreign currency loans mainly to exporters with foreign earnings – and was already offering advice to smaller companies on cashflow management.
Ergun Ozen, chief executive of Garanti, forecasts its lira-denominated lending will grow 10-15 per cent in 2009, while foreign currency lending will grow 5-10 per cent. One analyst at a foreign bank in Istanbul says that Turkish bank valuations are already attractive without any lending growth.
So far, bankers say, there is little need for heavy-handed government help. They welcomed changes to accounting rules that will allow institutions to hold some assets to maturity rather than marking them to market – a policy that is helping the earnings of banks across Europe.
But survivors of the last crisis are wary of reintroducing a full guarantee for retail deposits – saying this encouraged foolhardy lending before 2001.
Whatever the precautions, banks are bound to record an increase in bad loans as Turkish companies suffer a slump in export markets and a domestic slowdown.
Analysts warn that the quality of loan books – after a period of rapid loan growth to small and medium sized companies – has not been tested in a downturn.
In particular, nobody knows how painful could be banks’ exposure to real estate – where a splurge of luxury shopping malls now looks spectacularly ill-timed.
But the biggest risk is macroeconomic. Even with lower energy prices, there is growing speculation that Turkey will have to run down foreign exchange reserves, and possibly call on the IMF to help plug the gap. If that situation escalates into a full currency crisis, all bets are off.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Published: November 16 2008 21:10 | Last updated: November 16 2008 21:10
Turkish bankers are more familiar with the convulsions in global finance than most.
In 2001 some two-fifths of the country’s banks failed after a spree of irresponsible, sometimes corrupt, lending. Rescuing and recapitalising these institutions cost a crippling 30 per cent of gross domestic product and plunged the economy into deep recession.
Yet it is thanks to that forced restructuring that Turkish banks now look almost solid compared with their shaky western counterparts.
For the sector as a whole, capital ratios range from 15-25 per cent, research by Moody’s found, while the loan to deposit ratio stood at 85 per cent in June, and retail deposits account for the bulk of banks’ funding.
But, Istanbul bankers’ early optimism is now wearing thin as Turkey increasingly feels the effects of global credit tightening and a sharp domestic downturn.
Third-quarter earnings will be 35 per cent lower than last quarter, due to trading losses and lower dividend and non-interest income, according to analysts at Credit Suisse.
Among banks that have already reported, Garanti revealed a 20 per cent quarter on quarter fall in net earnings and loan growth of just 4 per cent.
George Chrysaphinis, analyst at Moody’s, says for the global financial crisis to hurt Turkey’s banks, it has to reach the real economy first. “Only now are we entering that phase. What we don’t know is how severe it is going to be.”
One big vulnerability is the financial sector’s exposure to sudden swings in the lira’s value. Banks no longer have big direct exposure to foreign exchange borrowing, which proved devastating when the currency plunged in 2001. But their customers are highly sensitive to exchange rates.
When the lira tumbled along with other emerging market currencies last month, analysts estimate foreign exchange deposits in the banking system shrank by $10bn-$11bn. About $6bn was converted into Turkish lira deposits, but the rest disappeared – perhaps under the mattresses of consumers with long memories.
“This is making the balance sheet structure of banks change dramatically,” says Suzan Sabanci Dincer, chairwoman of Akbank, Turkey’s second-largest bank by assets.
A bigger worry is banks’ indirect exposure to exchange rate risk through the borrowing of non-financial companies – whose net foreign exchange liabilities were more than $80bn in the second quarter of 2008.
Sustained depreciation in the lira would hit companies with heavy, unhedged foreign currency borrowing – with a knock-on effect for banks’ balance sheets.
Views differ on the severity of the threat. Optimists argue that short-term foreign exposure is much lower than in the past and that owners would use family assets to bail out their companies in a crisis.
“When we lend to medium-sized companies, we always take guarantees from the owners,” Ms Sabanci Dincer says. But she added Akbank would for now be extending foreign currency loans mainly to exporters with foreign earnings – and was already offering advice to smaller companies on cashflow management.
Ergun Ozen, chief executive of Garanti, forecasts its lira-denominated lending will grow 10-15 per cent in 2009, while foreign currency lending will grow 5-10 per cent. One analyst at a foreign bank in Istanbul says that Turkish bank valuations are already attractive without any lending growth.
So far, bankers say, there is little need for heavy-handed government help. They welcomed changes to accounting rules that will allow institutions to hold some assets to maturity rather than marking them to market – a policy that is helping the earnings of banks across Europe.
But survivors of the last crisis are wary of reintroducing a full guarantee for retail deposits – saying this encouraged foolhardy lending before 2001.
Whatever the precautions, banks are bound to record an increase in bad loans as Turkish companies suffer a slump in export markets and a domestic slowdown.
Analysts warn that the quality of loan books – after a period of rapid loan growth to small and medium sized companies – has not been tested in a downturn.
In particular, nobody knows how painful could be banks’ exposure to real estate – where a splurge of luxury shopping malls now looks spectacularly ill-timed.
But the biggest risk is macroeconomic. Even with lower energy prices, there is growing speculation that Turkey will have to run down foreign exchange reserves, and possibly call on the IMF to help plug the gap. If that situation escalates into a full currency crisis, all bets are off.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Monday, October 6, 2008
FT: Türkiye’de özelleştirme krize kurban gidecek
04/10/2008
Radikal
Türkiye’nin küresel krize karşı bağışık olmadığı bildirildi. Financial Times gazetesi, bayramın ardından yaşanan borsa düşüşleri ve liranın değer kaybına dikkat çekerek, “Türkiye, diğer yükselen piyasalar gibi küresel finansal kargaşaya karşı bağışık olmaktan uzak” yorumunu yaptı. Gazete, özelleştirme programının piyasalardaki olumsuz gelişmelere “kurban” gideceği gibi göründüğünü belirten gazete, bunun da cari açığı finansmanı açısından yaratacağı sorunlara dikkat çekti.
Ekonomi gazetesi Financial Times, Ankara kaynaklı Delphine Strauss imzalı haberinde bayramın ardından Cuma günü yeniden açılan İstanbul borsasının küresel finansal krizdeki son gelişmelerin karşısında yüzde 4.2 düştüğünü kaydetti. Gazete, bu düşüşün da, üç haftanın en büyük gerileme olduğuna ve bir haftalık kaybı yüzde 5.5’e çıkarttığına işaret etti.
Türk politikacılarının, yatırımcıların sinirlerini yatıştırmak amacıyla ülkenin bankacılık sisteminin artık krizlere daha dirençli olduğunu söylediklerini belirten gazete, Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ve Merkez Bankası Başkanı Durmuş Yılmaz’ın açıklamalarına da dikkat çekti.
ÖZELLEŞTİRME PROGRAMI ETKİLENECEK
Ancak borsa düşüşlerinin yanı sıra tahvil faizlerinin yükseldiğine, Türk lirasının ise dolara karşı son beş ayın en düşük düzeyine indiğine işaret edildiği “Türkiye, diğer yükselen piyasalar gibi küresel finansal kargaşaya karşı bağışık olmaktan uzakö yorumunu yaptı. Gazete şunları yazdı:
“Özellikle hükümetin özelleştirme programını sürdürme planlarının, piyasalardaki pata durumuna kurban gideceği gibi görülüyor.
“Bu da, ülkenin şişmiş cari açığının finansmanı açısından daha çok baskı oluşturur.”
Financial Times, haberinde ayrıca Başbakan Erdoğan’ın, bu ortamın Halkbank’ın özelleştirmesi ve halka satılması için uygun olmadığı yolundaki değerlendirmesinin ardından Türk bankalarının değer kaybettiğini belirtti.
Halkbank hisselerinin değerinin de yüzde 6.1 düştüğüne işaret eden gazete, Erdoğan’ın, Ziraat Bankasının satılmasının düşünülmediğini söylediğine de dikkat çekti.
Haberde geçen ay önde gelen Türk bakanlarından birinin ise, Halkbank’ın özelleştirilmesinin piyasa koşullarının izin vermesi halinde gerçekleşeceğini söylediği anımsatıldı. (anka)
Radikal
Türkiye’nin küresel krize karşı bağışık olmadığı bildirildi. Financial Times gazetesi, bayramın ardından yaşanan borsa düşüşleri ve liranın değer kaybına dikkat çekerek, “Türkiye, diğer yükselen piyasalar gibi küresel finansal kargaşaya karşı bağışık olmaktan uzak” yorumunu yaptı. Gazete, özelleştirme programının piyasalardaki olumsuz gelişmelere “kurban” gideceği gibi göründüğünü belirten gazete, bunun da cari açığı finansmanı açısından yaratacağı sorunlara dikkat çekti.
Ekonomi gazetesi Financial Times, Ankara kaynaklı Delphine Strauss imzalı haberinde bayramın ardından Cuma günü yeniden açılan İstanbul borsasının küresel finansal krizdeki son gelişmelerin karşısında yüzde 4.2 düştüğünü kaydetti. Gazete, bu düşüşün da, üç haftanın en büyük gerileme olduğuna ve bir haftalık kaybı yüzde 5.5’e çıkarttığına işaret etti.
Türk politikacılarının, yatırımcıların sinirlerini yatıştırmak amacıyla ülkenin bankacılık sisteminin artık krizlere daha dirençli olduğunu söylediklerini belirten gazete, Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ve Merkez Bankası Başkanı Durmuş Yılmaz’ın açıklamalarına da dikkat çekti.
ÖZELLEŞTİRME PROGRAMI ETKİLENECEK
Ancak borsa düşüşlerinin yanı sıra tahvil faizlerinin yükseldiğine, Türk lirasının ise dolara karşı son beş ayın en düşük düzeyine indiğine işaret edildiği “Türkiye, diğer yükselen piyasalar gibi küresel finansal kargaşaya karşı bağışık olmaktan uzakö yorumunu yaptı. Gazete şunları yazdı:
“Özellikle hükümetin özelleştirme programını sürdürme planlarının, piyasalardaki pata durumuna kurban gideceği gibi görülüyor.
“Bu da, ülkenin şişmiş cari açığının finansmanı açısından daha çok baskı oluşturur.”
Financial Times, haberinde ayrıca Başbakan Erdoğan’ın, bu ortamın Halkbank’ın özelleştirmesi ve halka satılması için uygun olmadığı yolundaki değerlendirmesinin ardından Türk bankalarının değer kaybettiğini belirtti.
Halkbank hisselerinin değerinin de yüzde 6.1 düştüğüne işaret eden gazete, Erdoğan’ın, Ziraat Bankasının satılmasının düşünülmediğini söylediğine de dikkat çekti.
Haberde geçen ay önde gelen Türk bakanlarından birinin ise, Halkbank’ın özelleştirilmesinin piyasa koşullarının izin vermesi halinde gerçekleşeceğini söylediği anımsatıldı. (anka)
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