Gaza dents Turkey-Israel ties

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey has in recent years been Israel's best friend in the Muslim world, forging close security ties and even seeking to develop a role as a mediator between the Jewish state and its Arab enemies.

Now, an outpouring of grassroots anger over Israel's Gaza operation has rocked that special relationship and Turkey's prime minister appears under increasing pressure to take a tough stand against the offensive — raising questions about the fate of longterm ties.

Since the beginning of the Gaza attacks in late December, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lambasted Israel in public statements — in one case saying its Gaza offensive would bring a "curse" — and halted regular communications with Jerusalem. On a Middle Eastern tour after the launch of the operation, Erdogan kept Israel off his itinerary.

Turkish officials say Erdogan told his party in a closed-door session last week that he would not contact Israeli officials until a ceasefire is in place. And newspapers have reported Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's recent request to visit Ankara was denied.

Beyond the snubs has been a series of vitriolic outbursts that may point to a desire to respond to anger at Israel among ordinary Turks as well as in Erdogan's ruling party. Tens of thousands have staged almost daily protests, many calling on the government to cut off ties to Israel.

In one of his harshest statements, Erdogan last week said a "curse" will fall on Israel over "the children who died in those bombs."

Then on Tuesday, Erdogan told Parliament: "They say my criticism is harsh, I assume it is not as harsh as phosphorus bombs or fire from tanks ... I am reacting as a human and a Muslim."

Experts are torn over the longterm consequences of the chill.

Ties between Israel and Turkey have been frayed in the past over Israel's attacks on Palestinians but their interest in maintaining strong security ties have eventually helped mend fences.

Israel and Turkey signed a cooperation agreement in 1996, and Israel has since renovated almost 200 of Turkey's M60 tanks and dozens of combat aircraft. Israeli pilots even trained in Turkish air space, flying training sorties from a Turkish base near Ankara. More recently, Israel has supplied unmanned air vehicles to monitor Kurdish rebel activities in Turkey's southeast.

"Erdogan's grassroots are protesting in the streets and he is reflecting that reaction at the highest level on the international platform," said Nihat Ali Ozcan, an analyst based at the Economic Policy Research Institute in Ankara.

"But Turkey's friendship with Israel is unlikely to be seriously affected since it would weaken Turkey's hand as a go-between between all sides and strategically it is not in Turkey's interest."

Israel also said it did not expect lasting damage to ties.

"Our relationship with Turkey is a special relationship and if today there are a few bumps in the road, we are positive they are only temporary," said Olmert spokesman Mark Regev.

However, some observers believe the new Turkish tone — along with recent moves that point to closer ties with militant group Hamas — may undermine Turkey's ability to carry out any mediating role in the Middle East.

Turkey has said it would be willing to contribute to an international peacekeeping force to monitor crossings into the Gaza strip. Turkey has hosted four rounds of low-level talks between longtime enemies Israel and Syria, boosting its clout as a regional go-between; the Gaza conflict has now led Turkey to suspend those efforts, and Damascus is also refusing to speak with Israel.

"Erdogan's statements on Israel and (Turkey's) position toward Hamas have not only weakened its role as a potential mediator in the crisis, but in all Arab-Israeli conflicts," said Semih Idiz, a foreign policy commentator for Turkey's Milliyet newspaper.

And Turkey's Middle East diplomacy has always been multi-pronged — at once a key asset and potential complication to its status as a regional mediator.

Even as it has sought warm relations with Jerusalem, Erdogan's government has, since coming to power in 2003, also forged closer ties to the Jewish state's traditional rivals such as Iran and hosted exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in 2006. Turkey believes Hamas must play a key role in the Palestinian territories — a break with other Arab countries like Egypt.

"Turkey has called for the involvement of all actors, even the difficult actors such as Hamas," said Ibrahim Kalin, of the pro-government Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research. "They have to be part of the process."