ICG warns of possible Cyprus partition

By Delphine Strauss in Ankara

A de facto partition of Cyprus will be the only option remaining if talks to reunify the island have not produced a settlement by the spring, the International Crisis Group warns in a report published on Wednesday.

A year of United Nations-brokered talks between Demetris Christofias, president of the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government of Cyprus, and Mehmet Ali Talat, his Turkish Cypriot counterpart and friend, have made only limited progress on the most controversial issues of property, security and power sharing.

If a referendum on reunification does not take place before April’s elections in the north, which is recognised as a state only by Turkey, Mr Talat is likely to be replaced by a candidate sceptical of the basic formula of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation.

Mr Talat told the FT in an interview earlier this month that it was the “last chance for a solution”, although he gave no deadline by which talks must be concluded.

“The future is either federation or partition,” according to a senior diplomat from the region cited in the report.

The ICG notes it would be difficult to revive talks, as the UN and other possible brokers are reluctant to be implicated in further failures, and young people in both communities are growing increasingly indifferent to the issue.

A permanent split, whether formally recognised or not, would mean slower economic growth, higher defence spending and reduced international credibility for both sides, the report argues. It could also persuade many Turkish Cypriots to seek better prospects elsewhere, whether overseas or in the south of the island.

A UN-sponsored reunification plan, which would have turned Cyprus into a loose federation, was derailed in 2004 when Turkish Cypriots approved it by 65 to 35 per cent in a referendum but Greek Cypriots rejected it by 76 to 24 per cent. The European Union admitted the Greek Cypriots as the island’s sole representatives, a step that has severely complicated Turkey’s EU accession talks.

The ICG urges Turkey to end a boycott on direct talks with Greek Cypriots, saying: “The gravest disconnect plaguing the talks is mistrust between two of the principal actors.” But it warns: “Today’s stronger, more prosperous Turkey is more ready than in the past to defy the EU and risk irreversible damage to the relationship over what it also sees as issues of national interest and justice.”