Gas Pipeline in Turkey Gains European Backing

By SABRINA TAVERNISE and SEBNEM ARSU

A project for a gas pipeline that would reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas cleared a hurdle on Monday when four European governments signed an agreement with Turkey. But the project’s completion remained a distant goal, with no suppliers formally committed.

Government representatives of Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania joined Turkish officials in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, to sign the pact, a transit agreement on the so-called Nabucco pipeline, which would stretch 2,000 miles from the Caspian Sea to Austria through Turkey.

The project has long been delayed, bogged down in disagreements between Turkey and Europe over terms and by maneuvers from Russia, which is pressing for a competing pipeline, South Stream. Most significantly, the pipeline has no committed suppliers, the most important element in getting the project moving.

The agreement signed Monday, which Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was present for, was just one small step, experts said.

“It does very little to remove obstacles from the pipeline,” said Ana Jelenkovic, an analyst at Eurasia Group in London. “We have no map. There are no committed supplies, and no committed financing.”

The project was proposed in 2002 by executives of European energy companies wanting to reduce their reliance on Russian gas, which dominates Europe’s energy market. It took on new urgency in 2006 and again last winter, when pricing disputes between Ukraine and Russia shut down supplies to Europe.

Azerbaijan, an oil-rich American ally on the Caspian Sea, was seen as a potential principal supplier, though countries like Egypt and Iraq — as well as Iran, despite American objections — had also been discussed.

But geopolitics intervened last year, when Russia fought a short war with Georgia, giving other former Soviet satellites like Azerbaijan pause. In an indication of that concern, Azerbaijan last week signed an agreement to supply small amounts of natural gas to Russia, a promise that Ms. Jelenkovic said would not threaten the Nabucco pipeline.

Azerbaijan has also hit a rough spot in relations with Turkey, which is trying to reconcile with Armenia, its neighbor. Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a bitter war in the 1990s.

And Moscow has continued to seek support for its project. Just last week, Russia’s deputy prime minister, Igor Sechin, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying that Russia had “offered Turkey cooperation with the South Stream.”

Monday’s agreement does not address the sticking point between Turkey and Europe, Ms. Jelenkovic said. Turkey wants to keep 15 percent of the pipeline’s potential supply for its own markets or for resale, and European countries have balked at that.

Borit Grgoc, an expert on Caspian energy issues who has worked as a consultant to the Azeri government, said that European nations were unlikely to have an interest in allowing Turkey to “sell gas back to them.”

However, reports in the Turkish news media said that Turkey had agreed to lower its demand after partners in the consortium, along with RWE of Germany, offered a 50 to 60 percent share in tax revenues from the project, which could be worth up to $650 million.