Turkey dismayed at tone of European electioneering

By Delphine Strauss

An outbreak of Turkey-bashing in the run-up to European elections has dismayed politicians and diplomats in Ankara already worried that progress towards European Union accession is grinding to a halt.

From Nicolas Sarkozy’s loud insistence that Turkey merits only a “privileged partnership” with the EU, to the nationalist rhetoric of hard-right parties in the Netherlands, Austria and Bulgaria, every hint of criticism is chewed over by the Turkish media as another rebuff to the 50 year campaign for EU membership.

Ahmet Davutoglu, who spent much of his first month as foreign minister shuttling around European capitals, has urged member states not to make Turkey’s integration “a domestic issue of discussion”.

But the bigger problem is that the doubts cast on Turkey’s long-term prospects of membership give its ruling Justice & Development party (AKP) no incentive to take political risks in order to drive through the reforms needed to advance negotiations.

Since late 2005, Turkey has regularly opened two areas of technical talks in each 6-month period. Now it will be lucky to open one – on taxation – before the end of the Czech presidency. Failure to pass legislation on trade unions means it cannot begin discussions on social policy and employment as officials had intended.

Because French and Cypriot objections stop Ankara opening many other chapters, all semblance of progress could halt next year – unless a breakthrough in Cypriot peace talks leads Turkey to heed a deadline to open ports to Greek Cypriot traffic.

“We need new blood, if we want this process not to die a natural death at the end of this year or early next,” said Cengiz Aktar, an academic at Istanbul’s Bahcesehir university, adding it would take “not just words but deeds” from government.

Egemen Bagis, appointed chief EU negotiator in January, glibly lists measures from the introduction of Kurdish language television to the state’s rehabilitation of a dead communist poet as evidence of Turkey’s commitment to reforms.

But another pro-European AKP deputy admits little has been done in the last year and not much time remains to push reforms through parliament before the EU makes its next assessment of progress.

The year-end review, which will also examine Turkey’s commitment to admit Greek Cypriot traffic, is unlikely to prompt member states to suspend negotiations entirely. But European diplomats who support Turkey’s accession bid say they are concerned at the prospect of further deferrals and postponements.

“Stagnation could further fuel the mutual estrangement - and this could send Ankara’s candidacy into a slow death spiral,” concurs Wolfango Piccoli at Eurasia group.

German elections in September are another worry: although Angela Merkel has recently softened her tone about Turkey’s bid, if she is able to govern without SPD coalition partners after the vote Ankara will lose its strongest German supporters.

Given the obstacles, Marc Pierini, Commission ambassador in Ankara, is admirably optimistic. Citing the examples of the UK, Spain and Bulgaria, he says: “Frustration goes together with the accession negotiations, but eventually it happens.”